**AUD/USD Forex Signal Analysis – 30th September 2025**
*Original Credit: DailyForex (written by Adam Lemon, paraphrased and expanded for educational purposes)*
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The AUD/USD currency pair is an essential barometer of risk sentiment and commodity-driven FX flows in the global market. As we move towards the end of September 2025, the pair draws notable attention from traders due to its mix of technical formations and macroeconomic backdrops. This comprehensive analysis provides a deep dive into technical setups, emerging patterns, and relevant context influencing buy and sell decisions for the AUD/USD on September 30th, 2025.
## Overview of the Current Market
– **Recent Movements**: After experiencing considerable swings in the last quarter, the Australian dollar has navigated through volatility, reacting to key economic data from both Australia and the US.
– **Fundamental Drivers**: Shifts in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal, alongside Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) communications on rates and inflation, have played a pivotal role. The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and guidance have equally influenced the pair.
## Technical Analysis of AUD/USD
### 1. Price Action and Chart Structure
– **Intermediate Trend**: The pair has shown a consolidative pattern between 0.6490 and 0.6600, setting up a potential for breakout as September comes to a close.
– **Support and Resistance**:
– Strong support: 0.6490
– Interim support: 0.6520
– Immediate resistance: 0.6570
– Major resistance: 0.6600
– **Candlestick Patterns**: Recent daily candles have experienced upper wicks, indicating persistent selling above the 0.6570 zone. Shadows beneath 0.6510 point to buyers defending the area.
– **Moving Averages**:
– The 50-day EMA is trending just above 0.6550, acting as dynamic resistance.
– The 200-day EMA stands near 0.6610, reinforcing the broader ceiling.
### 2. Momentum and Trend Indicators
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: Currently sits near 49, implying neutrality with a slight tilt toward bearishness.
– **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**:
– The MACD line remains above the signal on the 4H chart but is flattening, signaling caution for bullish momentum.
– **ADX (Average Directional Index)**: Reads at 21, suggesting a weak trend in the current rangebound environment.
– **Volume**: Thinner trading volume toward end of quarter, which could precede a violent move as liquidity returns.
## Fundamental Backdrop
### Australian Side
– **Economic Releases**:
– Retail sales rose 0.5% in August, beating forecasts and easing fears of a sharp consumer slowdown.
– Unemployment rate stands steady at
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