**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Outlook**
*Original analysis credit: ActionForex.com*
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### Overview
The AUD/USD pair experienced notable fluctuations over the past week, driven by shifts in market sentiment, changes in risk appetite, and developing economic narratives both in Australia and the United States. This analysis provides an in-depth look at the technical and fundamental factors influencing the exchange rate, as well as forecasting future price action based on current trends and additional perspectives.
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### Recent Developments in AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar came under pressure against the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair failing to hold onto gains made earlier in the week. A combination of weaker than expected economic data from Australia, expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, and shifts in global risk sentiment all played a role in guiding the pair lower.
#### Key Drivers of Recent Price Action
– **Federal Reserve Policy Expectations**
– A series of hawkish statements from Fed officials reinforced the message that rates could stay higher for longer, supporting the Greenback.
– Recent US economic data, particularly inflation and employment numbers, continue to outpace expectations.
– **Australian Economic Data**
– Domestic numbers have been mixed, with consumer spending and business confidence showing signs of strain.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains less hawkish compared to the Fed, and markets are not expecting any imminent rate hikes.
– **Risk Sentiment**
– Recent turmoil in global equity and commodity markets increased volatility and contributed to safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.
– **China’s Economic Outlook**
– As Australia’s chief trading partner, signs of weakness in Chinese data often put additional pressure on the Australian Dollar.
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### Technical Analysis
The technical backdrop for AUD/USD shows a pair caught within a broader consolidation range on the weekly chart, as sellers control the momentum in the short term.
#### Weekly Chart Insights
– **Price Structure**
– The pair attempted several rebounds but failed to break key resistance levels.
– Sellers stepped in around the 0.6700-0.6750 area, pushing the pair back into the lower half of the recent trading range.
– **Moving Averages**
– The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) has capped upward movements, while the 200-week SMA supports price on pullbacks, creating a defined medium-term range.
– **Momentum**
– Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are hovering near the midline, signaling neither strong upward nor downward momentum at present.
– MACD lines remain below the zero level, reflecting continued bearish bias, though the histogram’s contraction shows that selling pressure is moderating.
– **Support and Resistance Levels**
– Strong resistance remains at 0.6700-0.6750. Breaks above this region could spur a move toward 0.6870.
– Layered support is seen near 0.6580, then deeper at 0
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