Title: USD/JPY Tests Key Bearish Corrective Trendline – Market Analysis
Source: Economies.com | Original Analyst: Economies.com Analysts
Date: October 10, 2025
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to exhibit distinctive price movement patterns as it tests significant technical levels amid ongoing bearish pressure. In this detailed analysis, we explore the underlying trends influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate, assess potential breakout levels, and review broader market expectations heading into Q4 2025.
This extended technical commentary is based on the original analysis provided by Economies.com.
Current Price Behavior and Technical Outlook
Over recent trading sessions, the USD/JPY pair approached and tested a critical descending corrective trendline that limits upward momentum. Despite intermittent bullish attempts, the pair has yet to secure a clear breakout above this key resistance level.
Key Technical Observations:
– The pair is currently confined within a short-term bearish channel that originated earlier in the month.
– The price remains capped by a downward-sloping trendline drawn from the highs posted in late September 2025.
– Recent tests of this bearish trendline reflect market hesitation and caution, as traders assess the strength of resistance.
The corrective trendline functions as a strong technical ceiling. The inability to break the upper boundary of this descending path suggests that bears remain active near resistance zones.
Support and Resistance Zones to Watch:
– Immediate resistance is spotted at the 149.50 level, which corresponds with the upper boundary of the descending trendline.
– A confirmed breakout above this resistance could attract fresh bullish momentum and drive the price toward 150.20 and possibly 150.90.
– On the downside, initial support is seen at 148.50, followed by stronger support at 148.10 and then 147.35.
Breakout Scenarios and Price Projection
Given the current market positioning near trendline resistance, two key technical scenarios may unfold in the coming days:
1. Bullish Breakout Scenario:
– A successful breach of the descending trendline, accompanied by strong volume, could signal renewed upward momentum.
– Breaking above the 149.50 resistance level would indicate the beginning of a potential bullish wave.
– In this case, technical targets may include the following:
– 150.20: Psychological resistance zone
– 150.90: Recent local peak
– 151.30: Potential bullish extension point
2. Bearish Rejection Scenario:
– Failure to break through the corrective trendline would invite sellers back into the market.
– A sustained reversal from this level could spark renewed bearish pressure toward the support zones.
– Key downside targets include:
– 148.50: Short-term support region
– 148.10: Previous consolidation area
– 147.35: June 2025 lows
Moving Averages and Oscillator Indicators
From a technical indicator viewpoint, momentum remains mixed. Several short-term oscillators are beginning to flash caution, while moving averages suggest continued indecision in trend confirmation.
Trend and Momentum Analysis:
– The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is relatively flat, indicating a lack of consistent direction.
– The 100-period SMA remains below recent price action but has not decisively curved higher.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 level, reflecting faded directional bias.
– The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a narrowing of histograms, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
– Stochastic oscillators also hint at overbought conditions after the recent recovery from support.
These signals collectively call for a cautious approach to any directional trades while the pair hovers near the trend-defining resistance.
Fundamental Considerations Influencing USD/JPY
While the technical landscape suggests hesitation, market participants must also weigh macroeconomic data and central bank policy outlooks that influence forex markets.
Key Fundamental Drivers Behind USD/JPY Behavior:
1.
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