**USD/JPY Daily Technical Outlook – Updated Analysis**
*Based on the original article by ActionForex.com*
As we assess the current movement in the USD/JPY currency pair, the price action highlights ongoing bullish momentum, with upward developments consistently confirmed by both fundamental support and technical indicators. In this updated detailed outlook, we delve into the trend dynamics, interpret key support/resistance levels, and evaluate potential future outcomes based on the latest readings.
This analysis expands on the content authored by ActionForex.com, providing a more comprehensive breakdown of the USD/JPY daily chart patterns, incorporating broader technical indicators, Fibonacci projections, and risk considerations to offer a well-rounded forecast for traders and analysts.
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### Current Market Structure and Trend Analysis
USD/JPY continues to move within a bullish structure, holding firm above key moving averages and continuing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Although there was a slight consolidation at the beginning of the current trading session, the correction appears shallow. Buyers have re-entered the market, signaling resilience in the USD/JPY upward trend.
Key Observations:
– At the time of analysis, price action on the daily chart indicates firm support just above the 155.50 level.
– USD/JPY remains well above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), demonstrating strong prevailing upward momentum.
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) is also at elevated levels, currently hovering near the 70 mark, suggesting a slightly overbought condition but not yet at critical levels of reversal.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in positive territory, with the histogram reflecting continued buying strength.
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### Immediate Focus and Near-Term Outlook
– The pair is currently approaching the 161.8% Fibonacci projection from the move between 150.87 to 151.86, with a retracement to 151.19, placing the projection around the 156.50 area.
– As per ActionForex.com’s original commentary, focus remains on the resistance near this projection level for confirmation of sustained bullish continuation.
– A definitive break above this 156.50 level would suggest that the USD/JPY pair is gearing for an acceleration in bullish behavior, likely towards the next measured projection.
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### Fibonacci Projections and Target Levels
From a technical perspective, Fibonacci tools continue to provide key insight into potential expansion levels based on recent impulsive and corrective structures.
Using the swing from:
– Low at 140.25 (March low)
– High at 151.86
– Pullback to 151.19
Major Fibonacci Projections:
– 100% Projection: 153.80 (already surpassed)
– 161.8% Projection: 156.48
– 200% Projection: 158.20
– 261.8% Projection: 160.60
These levels should serve as core reference zones for traders managing entries, stops, and profit targets.
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### Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
If bullish momentum continues, here’s how the scenario could unfold:
– A daily close above 156.50 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
– Buyers would target 158.20 initially, representing the 200% Fibonacci extension level.
– A sustained presence above 158.00 would increase the odds of testing the psychological 160.00 handle, where the 261.8% Fibonacci extension lies.
– Should USD/JPY surpass 160.60, new highs become likely, though profit-taking and central bank commentary could cause volatility.
Drivers of a bullish scenario include:
– Widening interest rate differentials between the US and Japan.
– Hawkish rhetoric or policy action from the Federal Reserve.
– Continued weakness or monetary easing from the Bank of Japan.
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### Scenario 2: Pullback and Support Test
In contrast, a failure to penetrate the 156.48-156.50 resistance zone could lead to a short-term bearish pullback for USD/JPY.
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.