**USD/CAD Weekly Outlook: Technical Analysis and Market Insight**
*Original Source: ActionForex.com | Credit: Written by ActionForex Technical Team*
**Overview**
The USD/CAD currency pair experienced fluctuations over the past week, maintaining a generally consolidative stance within a moderate range. Despite underlying volatility across currency markets, USD/CAD has remained trendless in the short term. Movements in oil prices, interest rate expectations, and economic data from both the United States and Canada continue to serve as key directional drivers.
The main focus for traders in the upcoming week revolves around whether USD/CAD can break out of its recent consolidation pattern, as market participants await new cues from economic reports and central bank commentary. Technical levels are tightly monitored, with a balance between bullish momentum and downside risks.
**Technical Analysis Summary**
– USD/CAD found resistance around the 1.3744 area, retracting gently but still keeping eyes on key levels.
– The pair is seeing tight action, oscillating within a range defined roughly between 1.3620 and 1.3744.
– Key moving averages and trend indicators are not showing a strong trend direction, highlighting uncertainty.
**Daily Chart Insights**
1. **Price Action:**
– USD/CAD posted a high at approximately 1.3744, failing to sustain further bullishness.
– A downward retracement occurred but stayed within the recent consolidation band.
– The pair remains above the 55-day EMA, reflecting some bullish undertone, but lacks a clear breakout.
2. **Relative Strength Index (RSI):**
– RSI on the daily chart is hovering around neutral levels near 50.
– No significant divergence or extreme values, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears currently dominate.
3. **Support and Resistance Levels:**
– Immediate Resistance: 1.3744 is the short-term cap.
– Next Resistance: 1.3897, the 2024 high so far, looms as a longer-term objective if bullish momentum returns.
– Immediate Support: Located near 1.3667, followed by 1.3620.
– Extended Support: 1.3511 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3176 to 1.3897 advance).
4. **Trendline Structure:**
– Price remains above an ascending trendline from the 1.3176 low confirming an ongoing intermediate uptrend.
– Break below 1.3667 would threaten this trend structure and suggest deeper corrective potentials.
**Weekly Chart Analysis**
From a weekly perspective, the USD/CAD remains within a larger consolidative pattern that has persisted throughout 2024, bounded between roughly 1.3350 and 1.3900. This range reflects broader indecision about the relative trajectory of the U.S. and Canadian economies.
1. **Medium-term View:**
– The long-term uptrend from 2021 low (approximately 1.2000) remains intact.
– As long as the 1.3400 handle (approx.) remains unbroken, the bias slightly favors the upside.
– A solid break above 1.3897 would confirm resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
2. **Technical Indicators:**
– Weekly MACD remains slightly positive, suggesting mild bullish momentum.
– However, MACD signal lines are flattening — a sign of convergence and potential stalling.
– RSI on the weekly chart also remains around the 60 zone, indicating slight bullish pressure but no overbought conditions.
3. **Key Weekly Levels to Watch:**
– Resistance: 1.3897 (major resistance from previous 2024 peak).
– Support: 1.3486 (weekly low from May), further backed by 1.3357 (early March low).
**Fundamental Drivers: U.S. and Canadian Factors**
**1. Cr
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