Title: Forex Market Weekly Open: US-China Tariff Concerns Stir Risk Sentiment · Monday Opening FX Levels – October 27, 2025
Source: Adapted and expanded from an article by Eamonn Sheridan on ForexLive via TradingView
As the forex markets opened for Monday, October 27, 2025, currency traders were closely watching any developments around renewed tensions between the United States and China regarding trade tariffs. Amid new headlines over the weekend, risk sentiment is showing early signs of fraying, reflected in the initial movements in FX markets globally.
This comprehensive analysis outlines the indicative opening levels for major currency pairs, impacts from geopolitical events, central bank cues from the previous week, and expectations for the days ahead.
US-China Tariff Headlines: A Recurring Trigger
Over the weekend, headlines emerged suggesting that trade frictions between the United States and China are once again escalating. Reports indicate that senior advisers in Washington are considering implementing fresh tariffs on select categories of Chinese imports. This move is reportedly being positioned as a response to continued national security concerns and perceived lack of reciprocity in trade relationships.
Currency traders had a Pavlovian reaction to this kind of risk-off noise — harkening back to the intense periods of tariff disputes during 2018-2019. That strained period in global trade largely defined inter-market correlations and market volatility across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Similar dynamics are now reappearing in 2025.
Although no specific tariff announcements were made over the weekend, and no formal policy changes confirmed, even the mere speculation of trade disruptions has revived investor caution. In FX space, this came through in early flows away from higher-yielding or heavily China-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
Indicative Opening Forex Market Levels – Monday, October 27, 2025
FX prices were light in volume in early Asia-Pacific trade due to the weekend gap and low liquidity. However, indicative bid/offer spreads suggested the following opening levels (all data as of 2200 GMT on October 26):
– EUR/USD: 1.0615
– USD/JPY: 148.88
– GBP/USD: 1.2130
– USD/CHF: 0.8993
– USD/CAD: 1.3829
– AUD/USD: 0.6275
– NZD/USD: 0.5782
Cross rates continued to reflect risk aversion:
– AUD/JPY: 93.44
– EUR/JPY: 157.93
– GBP/JPY: 180.76
– EUR/GBP: 0.8753
– CHF/JPY: 165.56
Several Asian currency pairs also opened cautiously, particularly against the Japanese yen and US dollar.
– USD/SGD: 1.3720
– USD/CNH: 7.3130
– USD/THB: 36.49
– USD/KRW: 1355.6
Gaps from Friday closes were limited, but the tone was one of elevated alertness.
Analysis: Market Reaction and Macro Themes
The modest moves in forex rates during the Monday open betray deeper concerns underlying investor positioning. Here’s a breakdown of the key themes traders are watching this week:
1. US-China Tariffs Revived
– Reports that US officials may reintroduce tariffs reignited fears of protectionism.
– Emerging markets, particularly those with close trade ties to China and the US, may see rising volatility.
– Australian and New Zealand dollars are often regarded as proxies for Chinese economic sentiment.
– The AUD/USD dipped under 0.6280 in early trade, down from near 0.6330 highs last week.
2. Safe Haven Demand
– The Japanese yen and Swiss franc saw renewed interest.
– USD/JPY fell from Friday’s high near 149.37 to below 148
Read more on USD/CAD trading.