EUR/USD Forex Signal: Outlook for October 28, 2025
By: Adam Lemon (Original article published on DailyForex.com)
The EUR/USD currency pair has been under considerable pressure in recent sessions, reflecting a combination of economic data releases, central bank policies, and broader market sentiment. As traders navigate the ever-changing forex landscape, it’s essential to evaluate both the technical and fundamental aspects influencing the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. This comprehensive analysis offers a detailed breakdown of what traders need to watch for on October 28, 2025, and includes technical levels, trading ideas, market catalysts, and commentary on the broader market trend.
Overview of Recent Price Movement
The EUR/USD pair showed weakness over the last week, trading in a short-term declining trend. After peaking around the 1.0720 level in mid-October, the pair has steadily declined and is testing key support levels. This follows broad strength in the US Dollar, fueled by strong macroeconomic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.
Important recent events impacting the EUR/USD:
– Better-than-expected U.S. GDP growth data
– A rise in U.S. Treasury yields
– A cautious tone communicated by several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers indicating that the ECB’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing its end
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators
The EUR/USD chart exhibits a bearish tone on higher time frames while showing some consolidation on shorter time frames. Here are the technical details derived from the daily and 4-hour charts:
Support Levels:
– 1.0530: A key horizontal support level tested multiple times over the past two weeks
– 1.0490: March 2023 swing low that has historically acted as a buffer during sell-offs
– 1.0445: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 low to 2023 high swing
Resistance Levels:
– 1.0630: Short-term resistance and former support. If violated cleanly, it could attract bullish momentum
– 1.0675: 20-day exponential moving average and psychological round number confluence
– 1.0720: Swing high formed in mid-October that now acts as a major resistance level
Trend Indicators:
– The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the current price and sloping downward, suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level on the daily chart, reflecting continued seller dominance
– MACD histogram remains negative, although showing signs of waning bearish momentum
Short-Term Trading Opportunities
While the broader trend is tilted to the downside, intraday traders may find scalping opportunities given the current low-volatility environment.
Bullish Scenario (Long Trades):
A potential long setup may emerge if:
– The price breaks and closes above 1.0630 on the 4-hour chart. A clean move through this barrier could target 1.0675 and possibly 1.0720 as subsequent resistance zones
– RSI crosses above 50 and MACD histogram turns positive on the hourly chart, suggesting momentum is shifting in favor of buyers
Bearish Scenario (Short Trades):
Given the dominant downtrend, short opportunities are currently more favorable. Consider entering bearish positions if:
– The price fails to reclaim 1.0600 and prints lower highs followed by lower lows
– A clear break below the 1.0530 support level occurs with high volume, which may signal continuation to 1.0490 and then 1.0445
– U.S. fundamental data continues to beat expectations or Federal Reserve commentary turns increasingly hawkish
Trade Recommendations (Based on Chart Analysis)
The following chart-based trade signals were derived from the current EUR/USD setup:
Entry Idea 1: Short below 1.0570
– Entry point: 1.0565
– Stop loss: 1.
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