**US Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD – October 30, 2025**
*Original reporting and analysis by David Scutt, City Index*
The US dollar remains a focal point of global forex markets as traders navigate a complex economic environment marked by diverging central bank policies, persistent inflation pressures, and geopolitical tensions. This article provides an in-depth technical analysis of key USD pairs—EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD—and examines price trends, key support and resistance levels, and broader market sentiment tied to macroeconomic indicators.
As of October 30, 2025, the US dollar has shown both resilience and volatility depending on the currency pair involved. This analysis integrates data from the original article by David Scutt from City Index and supplements it with insights from additional sources, including TradingView, DailyFX, and Investing.com.
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## Broader Market Context: October 2025
Before examining each pair in detail, it’s essential to understand the broader economic setup:
– **Federal Reserve Policy**: As of Q4 2025, the Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate at elevated levels, reflecting a persistent commitment to controlling inflation. Market consensus suggests rate cuts are unlikely before mid-2026, thereby supporting USD strength.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election have spurred safe-haven flows toward the USD.
– **US Economic Data**:
– Q3 2025 real GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 2.8%.
– Core PCE inflation sat at 3.4%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
– Labor market resilience continues to surprise analysts, providing additional support for USD via expectations of sustained high interest rates.
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## EUR/USD: Bearish Breakout Accelerates
The EUR/USD pair has experienced fresh downside momentum, trading at levels not seen since early 2023. The weakness in the Euro reflects both rebounding USD strength and anemic economic growth in the Eurozone.
### Technical Breakdown
– **Breakout Below Support**:
– The EUR/USD fell below major technical support at 1.0500, a key psychological barrier.
– This breakout followed multiple failed attempts to push back above its 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), reinforcing bearish momentum.
– **Trend Indicators**:
– The pair trades well below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a strong downward trend.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 36, indicating bearish but not yet oversold conditions, suggesting further downside is plausible.
– **Fibonacci Extension Levels**:
– Support is found at 1.0450 (23.6% extension).
– Deeper targets include 1.0350 and potentially 1.0250 in a strongly risk-off sentiment scenario.
### Macro Drivers
– **ECB Policy Divergence**: With inflation cooling significantly in Germany and France, the European Central Bank has struck a more dovish tone. Markets are now pricing in rate cuts starting in Q2 2026.
– **Bond Yield Spread**: The US-German 10-year government bond yield differential widened to over 200 basis points in October, contributing to Euro weakness as investors seek higher-yielding US assets.
### Possible Scenarios
– **Bearish Continuation**: A close below 1.0450 on the weekly chart opens the door to a test of the 2022 low near 1.0200.
– **Correction Risk**: Short-covering may cause a brief return to 1.0600, particularly if US data disappoints or Eurozone growth surprises.
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## USD/JPY: Gravity-Defying Rally Nears Intervention Zone
The USD/JPY has soared to levels not seen since 1990,
Read more on USD/CAD trading.