**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook and Analysis**
*Based on original reporting and analysis by ActionForex.com. Additional information included from ForexLive and DailyFX.*
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**Overview**
The Australian Dollar (AUD) to US Dollar (USD) currency pair, commonly known as AUD/USD, has exhibited a complex trading pattern recently. Market dynamics, global risk sentiment, commodities performance, and the interest rate environment have all contributed to the pair’s volatility and directional shifts over the past week.
This comprehensive outlook reviews and interprets the AUD/USD’s recent performance and possible future trajectories, incorporating updated insights from top forex analysts.
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**Recent Price Action and Technical Performance**
– **Consolidation Phase:** Over the week, AUD/USD entered a consolidation phase, primarily hovering around the 0.6600 to 0.6700 range. Price action indicated indecision as traders digested new economic data and central bank rhetoric.
– **Short-Term Resistance and Support:** Key technical barriers have emerged:
– Immediate resistance: 0.6704 (recent highs)
– Near-term support: 0.6575 (a short-term swing low)
– Broader support: 0.6465, which has previously functioned as a strong price floor
– **Moving Averages:**
– The 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), positioned just below current price levels, has acted as dynamic support.
– The 100-day EMA is flattening out, signifying unclear trends in the medium term.
– **Technical Indicators:**
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently trading in the neutral area near 50, not signaling overbought or oversold conditions.
– MACD: Remains marginally bullish, with the signal line still above zero, though momentum is wavering.
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**Fundamental Backdrop and Macro Influences**
**Australian Economic Environment**
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained rates in recent meetings, with markets divided over the likelihood of further hikes.
– Sentiment around Australia’s economic data, such as employment and retail sales figures, has turned cautious. While labor numbers have held up, consumer spending shows mixed signals.
– Commodity exports, particularly iron ore, are stabilizing. However, growth concerns in China — Australia’s largest trading partner — remain a persistent headwind.
**US Dynamics**
– The Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key driver for AUD/USD. While US inflation shows moderation, policymakers have left room for potential further tightening.
– Mixed US data, including jobless claims and retail activity, has caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fluctuate, indirectly influencing AUD/USD momentum.
**Global Themes**
– Market risk appetite has shifted in response to global events and Federal Reserve comments.
– The relationship with China continues shaping the AUD due to strong trading links and commodity export dependencies.
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**Weekly Technical Outlook (Based on ActionForex.com Analysis)**
**Short-Term Trend: Sideways Correction**
Read more on AUD/USD trading.