**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Outlook**
*Based on the original analysis by ActionForex.com. Additional information provided to extend and enhance the analysis for educational purposes. All credits to the original author at ActionForex.com.*
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### Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) exhibited continued weakness against the US Dollar (USD) throughout the past week. Mounting concerns over both domestic and international economic developments contributed to the currency pair’s downward momentum. Technical and fundamental factors have weighed on AUD/USD, with the pair extending its prior decline and breaking through notable support areas, signaling further vulnerability in the short and medium term.
This comprehensive outlook covers:
– Recent price action recap
– Key technical levels and indicators
– Major themes affecting the pair
– Downside and upside scenarios
– Market sentiment and positioning
– Broader implications and outlook for the upcoming weeks
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### Price Action Review
– AUD/USD commenced the week recovering slightly from prior losses, but persistent selling pressure prevailed.
– The pair failed to sustain gains beyond the 0.6700 region and was rapidly pushed lower.
– The decisive break below the 0.6589 support level significantly shifted the momentum in favor of sellers.
– By week’s end, AUD/USD had recorded its lowest closing price in several weeks, confirming a bearish technical structure.
**Key support and resistance levels:**
– Support: 0.6523 (recent swing low), 0.6457 (major support area)
– Resistance: 0.6589 (broken support turned resistance), 0.6702 (key barrier before further upside)
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### Technical Analysis
#### Short-term Indicators
1. **Moving Averages**
– The daily 20-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) have rolled over, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
– Price action now trades comfortably beneath both averages, reinforcing a negative bias.
2. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**
– The daily RSI hovered below the midline (50), currently near the 40 mark, indicating persistent bearish pressure but not yet in oversold territory.
3. **MACD**
– The MACD remains negative on the daily chart with widening histogram bars, also indicating the increasing pace of selling.
#### Medium-term Structure
– The wider structure shows AUD/USD completing a lower high at 0.6702, followed by the breakdown below 0.6589.
– This confirms the broader downtrend since January’s high and puts the bears back in control.
– Price structure favors further retracements toward the 0.6450-0.6470 region if sellers remain committed.
#### Fibonacci Levels
– The decline from the 0.6702 high to the 0.6523 low corresponds to a 100% retracement of a prior upward swing, increasing the odds of continued negative movement.
– Next significant Fibonacci support rests at the 0.6380 level (61.8 percent retracement of the
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