**USD/CAD Forecast – November 3, 2025**
*Based on analysis originally by DailyForex.com. Further insights included from MarketWatch, CNBC, and Investing.com to provide a broader context.*
The USD/CAD currency pair has been one of the more actively watched trading instruments, owing to the deep interconnectedness of the United States and Canadian economies. With both nations heavily reliant on trade relationships, oil sensitivity (particularly for Canada), and shifting central bank policy decisions, this currency pair often reflects broader macroeconomic themes.
As of early November 2025, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of potential upward momentum. The recent trend suggests that a bullish bounce could be underway, although market participants should carefully monitor upcoming data releases and broader economic signals.
### Technical Overview
The USD/CAD pair has recently experienced a mild retracement from prior highs, but as of the latest trading sessions, the currency cross seems poised for another push to the upside. A technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the following:
– The pair is trading above its 200-day moving average, signaling that long-term bullish momentum remains intact.
– The price recently bounced from a support zone in the 1.3600 area.
– A resistance zone exists near the 1.3850 level, with further resistance expected just above at the 1.3900 handle.
– A break above 1.3900 could prompt a march toward the psychologically significant 1.4000 level, which has historically acted as a strong resistance point.
### Key Technical Indicators
Below are several indicators currently influencing the USD/CAD pair:
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** Hovering slightly below overbought territory, indicating that the pair is overextended but hasn’t yet triggered a reversal signal.
– **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** Displays continued bullish divergence, supporting a case for further gains.
– **Moving Averages:** Both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending upward and displaying bullish crossovers, confirming current trend strength.
### Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Support:** Around 1.3600, with secondary support near 1.3450 – a key psychological and technical level, which previously acted as both support and resistance.
– **Resistance Levels:**
– 1.3850: Immediate short-term ceiling.
– 1.3900: Important technical barrier.
– 1.4000: Major psychological level that could invite institutional interest.
### Fundamental Drivers
Several fundamental factors are currently playing crucial roles in steering the USD/CAD exchange rate. These include:
#### 1. Interest Rate Expectations
The interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains a key influencing factor.
– **Federal Reserve:** After a series of rate hikes between 2022 and mid-2025, the Fed has currently paused its tightening cycle. Inflation is stabilizing around the 2.5% mark, which could push the Fed towards keeping rates elevated for a longer period unless signs of stagnation emerge.
– **Bank of Canada:** The BoC is grappling with sluggish growth and lower inflation relative to the U.S. As a result, its policy stance remains more dovish compared to the Fed.
This divergence in monetary policy is supportive of USD strength relative to CAD.
#### 2. Commodity Prices, Especially Oil
Canada is one of the world’s largest crude oil exporters. Hence, fluctuations in oil prices often have a direct impact on the Canadian dollar.
– WTI crude oil prices are holding below the $80 per barrel mark, and any weakening toward the $70 support level typically results in a depreciation of the CAD.
– Lower oil demand projections from China and emerging markets, as noted by several commodity analysts from Bloomberg and Investing.com, are acting as a headwind for petrocurrencies such as the Canadian dollar.
With oil prices under pressure and lacking the support of strong
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