Title: USD/JPY: UOB Expects Resistance Around 154.50 to Hold
Original Source: FXStreet
Original Author: Pablo Piovano
Published: November 3, 2025
Link: [FXStreet – USD/JPY: Clear break above 154.50 is unlikely – UOB Group](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-clear-break-above-15450-is-unlikely-uob-group-202511031158)
Overview:
According to recent market insights provided by the United Overseas Bank (UOB) Group, a sustained rise in the USD/JPY currency pair beyond the 154.50 mark is unlikely, despite the pair’s short-term rally. The analysis, compiled by UOB’s team of strategists, highlights key technical and trend-based resistance points that remain firm around the 154.50 barrier, suggesting that the upward momentum may soon settle or reverse.
USD/JPY has been one of the more closely watched currency pairs in the forex market through 2025, given global economic shifts, interest rate expectations, and monetary policy changes, notably from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Key Points from UOB Group Analysis:
Pablo Piovano of FXStreet reports that UOB strategists continue to track the currency pair’s performance and share the following major takeaways:
Short-Term Technical Outlook:
– UOB believes the recent price action of USD/JPY suggests that while the upside remains somewhat robust, it is approaching significant resistance levels.
– The pair rose toward the 154.50 zone recently, but UOB’s technical models indicate that this area is likely to pose a stiff barrier.
– There is no clear impetus presently that would justify a strong and sustained breakout beyond 154.50.
Trend Indicators According to UOB:
– Short-term upward momentum continues but is showing early signs of peaking.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI), often used to measure overbought and oversold conditions, signals that USD/JPY is nearing overbought territory.
– Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for short- and medium-term periods continue to support bullish sentiment, but the slope of ascent is softening, potentially indicating consolidation.
Forecast Range:
– UOB sets the likely trading range between 153.40 and 154.55 for the coming sessions.
– A move beyond 154.55, while not impossible, would require stronger bullish catalysts or unexpected macroeconomic shifts.
– The lower boundary, 153.40, is seen as immediate support with the potential to guide next directional moves if broken.
Macroeconomic Influences on USD/JPY:
The current market environment plays an essential role in shaping the trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. There are a few key drivers that UOB and other market participants are watching closely.
1. Divergence in Central Bank Policies:
– The Federal Reserve has adopted a more restrictive approach in contrast to the Bank of Japan’s ongoing ultra-loose policy.
– The Fed’s higher interest rate environment continues to support USD strength in general.
– However, UOB notes that unless there is another surprising shift in U.S. monetary policy, the current trend may be near exhaustion.
2. Japan’s Economic Posture:
– The Bank of Japan has maintained a dovish tone, showing reluctance toward ending its negative interest rate policy despite mild inflationary pressures.
– This dovish stance places downward pressure on the yen, but recent comments from Japanese officials have suggested some readiness to intervene in the currency markets if weakness persists.
3. Risk Appetite and Global Geopolitics:
– Broad movements in risk sentiment, triggered by geopolitical instability and changes in global trade flows, continue to influence forex market volatility.
– Investors tend to favor the yen in times of uncertainty due to its safe-haven status, which could provide downside pressure on the USD/JPY.
Future Scenarios Considered by UOB:
The UOB Group outlines three
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.