Title: USD/JPY Forecast – November 6, 2025
Original article by Christopher Lewis | DailyForex.com
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to demonstrate signs of strong bullish momentum, as technical indicators and macroeconomic fundamentals align to support a continued upward trajectory. As of the latest data, the pair is trading well above key support zones, indicating a market bias favoring buyers. This analysis breaks down the factors shaping the USD/JPY trend, examining technical levels, fundamental drivers, and potential scenarios as we progress further into November 2025.
Overview of Recent Market Performance
The USD/JPY pair has exhibited a consistently bullish pattern over the past four weeks, showing resilience even amid episodes of market volatility. Throughout this period, traders have maintained a long bias, capitalizing on interest rate differentials and the relative strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the Japanese yen. The dollar’s performance has been supported by hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance continues to exert downward pressure on the yen.
Key Takeaways:
– USD/JPY remains firmly in an uptrend, supported by higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.
– The pair appears to be testing previous resistance turned support, around the 150 level.
– Buyers have stepped into any short-term dips, signaling market confidence.
Technical Analysis
Traders closely watching USD/JPY are observing classic uptrend dynamics, such as ascending trendlines, moving average support, and momentum oscillators pointing upward.
Key technical indicators:
– The currency pair is trading comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This is a traditional signal in technical analysis indicating bullish control of the market.
– The 50-day EMA is acting as dynamic support, located near the 149.20 level, providing a floor for pullbacks.
– Resistance is evident near the 152.00 level, a psychological barrier that has been tested multiple times but not yet broken definitively.
– Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), remain in bullish territory, hovering around 65, which suggests upward pressure but not yet overbought conditions.
Support and Resistance Zones:
– Immediate resistance: 152.00
– Strong resistance: 153.50
– Immediate support: 149.50
– Key support zone: 147.80 to 148.20
Traders should monitor price action near these levels, as a break above 152.00 could pave the way for an accelerated move toward 153.50, while a breach below 149.50 could trigger a more profound pullback into the range of previous consolidation.
Candlestick Patterns and Price Action
Recent daily candlesticks indicate strong buyer interest. Long lower shadows or “wicks” on recent candles reflect market rejection of lower prices, typically a reliable sign of bullish sentiment. These patterns reinforce the notion that traders are looking to buy the dips rather than initiate shorts at current levels.
On higher timeframes, such as weekly charts, the pair shows a pattern of bullish engulfing candles, suggesting sustainable gains. There have been no major reversal candles like bearish engulfing or shooting stars, which supports continued optimism on the long side.
Fundamental Drivers
The USD/JPY’s upward trajectory is also supported by fundamental factors, particularly interest rate differentials and monetary policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Major fundamental influences:
– Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed has signaled its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period, with inflation remaining above its 2 percent target. Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments emphasized a data-driven approach but leaned slightly hawkish, citing risks of resurgence in inflation.
– Bank of Japan Policy: The BoJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy. Despite rising inflation in Japan, the central bank has reiterated its need for continued support to achieve consistent wage and price growth. Governor Ueda’s
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