**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis: Fluctuates Near 0.6500 as Mixed Australian and US Data Shape Outlook**
*Adapted from original content by Kenny Fisher at Forex Crunch, with additional research and insights*
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### Performance Overview: AUD/USD Stagnates Amid Conflicting Signals
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has spent the past week fluctuating close to the 0.6500 mark against the US Dollar (USD), reflecting market uncertainty in the wake of divergent economic data from both Australia and the United States. Questions regarding the future direction of interest rates, as well as shifting global risk sentiment, have kept traders cautious.
The currency pair has seen limited momentum as investors weigh recent macroeconomic updates. The interplay between Australia’s domestic data and the broader influence of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory continues to foster a choppy trading environment.
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### Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD
#### 1. **Australian Economic Data: Mixed Results Cloud Policy Picture**
Australian economic releases in the previous week presented a muddled narrative for the AUD:
– **Retail Sales**: The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% month-on-month increase for October. This was below the expected 0.2% gain, indicating that consumer spending remains under pressure amid high borrowing costs and elevated living expenses.
– **Trade Balance**: Australia’s trade surplus narrowed more sharply than anticipated, with exports particularly pressured by lower prices for key commodities such as iron ore. The trimmed surplus reflected softer external demand and ongoing Chinese economic headwinds.
– **Inflation**: The monthly CPI indicator showed a moderation, rising by 4.9% year-on-year in October from the previous reading of 5.6%. This decrease, while still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target, underscores that domestic inflationary pressures are beginning to slow.
Collectively, these mixed signals have injected uncertainty regarding the RBA’s next policy moves.
#### 2. **Reserve Bank of Australia: Policy Stance Remains Cautious**
– **Interest Rate Outlook**: The RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35% in its most recent meeting, as policymakers assessed the evolving inflation data. According to the bank’s statement, the board is “not ruling anything in or out” with respect to future rate decisions.
– **Forward Guidance**: While the RBA remains vigilant against persistent inflation, it signaled an increased focus on upcoming data. Any surprises in employment, inflation, or retail activity could sway expectations for further policy tightening or a prolonged pause.
#### 3. **United States Data: Strong Jobs, Cooling Inflation**
– **Jobs Report**: Nonfarm payrolls for October exceeded market forecasts, with the US adding 187,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.9%, but this was interpreted positively, as it suggests a healthy but gradually moderating labor market.
– **Inflation**: The most recent CPI print
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