Weekly Forex Forecast: November 9 – 14, 2025
By: Sam Eder | Source: DailyForex.com
The FX market enters the week of November 9 to 14, 2025, with a cautious tone as traders absorb recent central bank decisions, geopolitical developments, and shifting economic indicators. Last week saw relatively muted volatility, but the landscape remains sensitive, particularly for USD-related pairs and risk-on currencies. This weekly outlook explores key currency pairs, highlighting the fundamental and technical factors likely to influence their trajectories.
Overview of Market Sentiment
Recent events have added both risk and uncertainty to the current market environment:
– The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted at a data-dependent stance moving forward.
– The Bank of England and the European Central Bank echoed a similar message: the tightening cycle may have peaked, but inflation persistence could delay rate cuts.
– Economic data from the U.S., such as employment, inflation, and consumer confidence, continue to drive dollar volatility.
– Central bank communication across the G7 now points to a more neutral or slightly dovish tone.
– Geopolitical concerns and falling commodity prices have nudged traders towards safer currencies like USD and CHF.
Below is a breakdown of the main currency pairs worth watching this week.
EUR/USD: Heading for a Breakout?
The EUR/USD pair recently traded in a relatively tight range around the 1.0700 level, revealing indecisiveness between bullish and bearish market participants. However, rising tensions between dovish ECB commentary and soft Eurozone economic data may influence the next move.
Key Fundamentals:
– The Eurozone struggled with weak PMI figures and lackluster consumer inflation data, suggesting the ECB may remain on hold for a longer period.
– Several ECB policymakers signaled no urgency to hike rates further and raised concerns about stagnant growth.
– U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, favoring dollar strength, although recent Fed minutes reflect dovish undertones.
Technical View:
– Resistance remains firm at the 1.0750 – 1.0780 price zone; only a solid break above could prompt bullish momentum toward 1.0850 and 1.0930.
– Support is seen at 1.0620 and 1.0550. A breakdown below these levels would expose the pair to 1.0480 and potentially 1.0350.
Forecast:
A move in either direction depends heavily on incoming U.S. inflation and employment figures. A surprise CPI reading could set the tone for a breakout.
GBP/USD: Can Sterling Regain its Strength?
Sterling traded mostly sideways last week as the Bank of England held its rate steady at 5.25% while striking a cautious tone. The British economy has shown signs of resilience, but the lack of aggressive forward guidance leaves GBP/USD vulnerable to macroeconomic swings.
Key Drivers:
– The latest BoE meeting minutes revealed concerns over inflation persistence, particularly in wage growth, but also flagged slowing consumer demand.
– UK GDP figures are due this week; a positive surprise may reignite bullish interest in the pound.
– A correction in the U.S. dollar would support a higher GBP/USD, but risk sentiment remains a limiting factor.
Technical Outlook:
– Resistance levels are eyed at 1.2400, followed by 1.2470 and 1.2600.
– On the downside, 1.2170 and 1.2100 offer strong support. A break below these levels could lead to deeper losses toward 1.2000.
Forecast:
GBP/USD may continue to trade within a 1.2100–1.2500 range unless driven by major shifts in sentiment or data. Risk-on conditions would be favorable for a bullish breakout.
USD/JPY: Interventions or Natural Correction?
Now hovering near the key 152.00 mark, USD/JPY is testing the patience of Japanese policymakers. Despite a slight pullback from recent highs, any upward extensions in yield spreads still favor
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.