Original Author: Adam Button
Source: InvestingLive.com
Title: “The USD is Mixed vs the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD to Start the NA New Trading Week”
The US dollar showed mixed results in early North American trading at the beginning of the week. Market participants carefully assessed global macroeconomic data and central bank policy stances before committing to directional plays. Key currency pairs like the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD revealed diverging price action during the early session, a common occurrence when a confluence of technical levels and fundamental narratives unfolds at the same time.
This article provides a detailed technical analysis of the major USD pairs—EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD—highlighting key levels and potential scenarios for short-to-medium-term price action. The analysis is based on real-time market behavior and current data as reported by Adam Button on InvestingLive.com.
EUR/USD Analysis: Dollar Pushes Higher but Meets Resistance
The EUR/USD pair saw upward momentum early in the week as the dollar weakened slightly against the euro. However, the rally stalled near a key resistance level on the H1 chart, suggesting a possible near-term cap on bullish progress.
Key Points on EUR/USD:
– The pair rose to test the 1.0749 level, which corresponds to the 50% midpoint of the downward move from the October high to the October low.
– That level also coincides with a swing area that traders previously recognized as support and resistance in September and October.
– Technically, consolidating below 1.0750 keeps the bearish bias intact in the short term.
– Holding below this midpoint suggests the pair may revisit support zones near 1.0692 and 1.0668.
– Only a confirmed break and sustained close above 1.0750 would shift the technical bias favorably for bulls and open a path toward the 61.8% retracement level near 1.0785.
From a fundamental view, the euro faces headwinds due to sluggish Eurozone growth and dovish expectations around the European Central Bank (ECB). However, weaker-than-expected US inflation or economic data could offer the pair renewed bullish potential.
USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Declines Modestly While Holding Support
The USD/JPY pair experienced slight dollar weakness, pulling back from recent highs but maintaining strong support, which helps keep the bullish trend structure intact. Traders remain alert to intervention risks from Japanese authorities, as the pair trades near multi-decade highs.
Key Technical Observations:
– Price action found support near 149.70, which corresponds with a swing level that previously acted as a bottom in late October.
– The pair remains above its 100-hour simple moving average, currently around 149.45, preserving its upside momentum in the medium term.
– Near-term resistance is seen at 150.90, which aligns with recent highs and psychological round number resistance at 151.00.
– Should the pair push above that resistance zone, it might set its sights on retesting the cycle highs around 151.70.
– A decline below 149.45 though would shift the technical structure and introduce bearish pressure toward 148.60 and potentially lower.
Key Fundamentals to Monitor:
– Traders are keenly watching for any signs of Japanese central bank intervention, especially if the pair approaches or exceeds the 152.00 level.
– Strong US economic data could provide fundamental tailwinds to the pair, while weaker CPI or jobs data may drag the dollar lower.
Despite Monday’s slight pullback, there is no strong signal of reversal unless price breaks below key short-term support levels.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Sterling Outperforms with Bullish Bias
The GBP/USD saw gains early this week, supported by optimistic sentiment around the UK economy and Bank of England policy expectations. Technically, the pair is showing clearer signs of a short-term bullish trend developing.
Key Findings in GBP/USD Price Action:
– The pair has broken
Read more on EUR/USD trading.