**EUR/USD Mid-Day Technical Analysis and Outlook – Revised and Expanded**
*Original Source: ActionForex, Article by ActionForex.com Analysts*
The EUR/USD remains under moderate bearish pressure following recent downward movements. The currency pair has so far been unable to sustain any significant bullish momentum in the short-term framework. The ongoing consolidation near recent lows, combined with bearish technical indicators, signals the potential for further movement to the downside unless a major reversal or impactful economic news shifts the landscape.
This expanded article offers a comprehensive analysis of the current EUR/USD trading setup, examines key technical indicators, evaluates macroeconomic drivers, and outlines potential scenarios for both bullish and bearish traders.
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### Intraday Technical Outlook for EUR/USD
The short-term trend continues to show a downward bias, reinforced by technical chart patterns and support/resistance levels:
– The EUR/USD is trading sideways with a downward bias, currently hovering slightly above the recent low of 1.0665.
– Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart, remain weak and lack signals of bullish divergence. This supports the argument for ongoing bearish momentum.
– The recent downward movement from 1.0915 (April high) appears corrective in nature, though continued selling pressure prolongs the bearish scenario.
– Initial support lies at 1.0665, the prior swing low. A firm break beneath this level may extend the decline toward the 1.0600 psychological support or possibly further toward 1.0520, aligning with a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level from a previous upward swing.
– On the upside, resistance is seen around 1.0740, followed by stronger resistance at 1.0790, which is currently marked by the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
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### Broader Technical Structure: Medium-Term Perspective
Zooming out to the daily chart, the broader structure suggests a mixed sentiment with potential for a corrective pattern:
– The larger trend from the 2023 high of 1.1275 appears to have shifted into a corrective or consolidative phase.
– Price action since late January 2024 has been oscillating between 1.0600 and 1.0980, forming a wide consolidation pattern.
– Though the medium-term structure isn’t strongly bearish, repeated failures to hold above the 1.0900 zone suggest weakening bullish momentum.
– The 200-day EMA sits around 1.0815 and has acted as resistance in previous attempts to rally. The inability to close above this level reinforces the presence of bearish pressure.
– A decisive break below the 1.0600 region would threaten the medium-term structure and open the door for a more prolonged downward move.
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### Key Support and Resistance Levels to Monitor
Support levels:
– 1.0665 – Recent swing low from early May
– 1.0600 – Psychological support, near previous lows
– 1.0520 – Important Fibonacci support aligning with 61.8% retracement
Resistance levels:
– 1.0740 – Immediate resistance within intraday horizon
– 1.0790 – Technical resistance from the EMA cluster
– 1.0830 – Prior swing high within consolidation
– 1.0905 – Key resistance from April highs
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### Technical Indicators in Focus
Let’s break down key technical indicators across different timeframes:
1. **Moving Averages:**
– EUR/USD is trading below the 20-period, 50-period, and 200-period exponential moving averages on the 4-hour chart, confirming the bearish trend.
– On the daily chart, the 200-day EMA continues acting as a resistance barrier. Shorter-term EMAs are converging, indicating a loss of bullish momentum.
2. **RSI and MACD:**
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both H4 and daily timeframes is neutral to bearish, lacking strong
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