**USD/CAD Forecast and Technical Outlook – November 18, 2025**
*Original Analysis Credit: DailyForex.com*
The USD/CAD currency pair has demonstrated a moderate but consistent upward trajectory, reflecting broader macroeconomic trends and technical dynamics in the currency markets. As of November 18, 2025, the pair is exhibiting signs of potential bullish continuation, supported by both price action and fundamental catalysts. This article explores the USD/CAD outlook in depth, combining technical analysis, fundamental insights, and broader market sentiment to provide traders and investors with a comprehensive overview.
## Current Market Recap
The USD/CAD has steadily risen over recent trading sessions, forming a bullish structure above key support levels. As of the latest data, the pair is trading near the 1.3820 area, showing a mild pullback after earlier strength pushing close to recent highs around 1.3860. The price action indicates some hesitation inside consolidation zones, though underlying momentum still favors buyers.
## Technical Outlook for USD/CAD
From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD continues to display bullish characteristics, staying well-supported above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Buyers appear to be holding key levels, suggesting ongoing demand driven by USD strength and relative CAD weakness due to softening oil prices and cautious risk sentiment.
### Key Technical Levels
– **Resistance Levels**:
– 1.3860: Most immediate resistance, with price action testing this level in recent sessions.
– 1.3900: Psychological round number; a breakout beyond this could attract further momentum buyers.
– 1.3970 – 1.4000: Historical resistance zone. A breach may signal a medium- to long-term bullish continuation.
– **Support Levels**:
– 1.3765: Minor short-term support, previously a consolidation point.
– 1.3700: Firm support zone, coinciding with near-term moving average support.
– 1.3620: Major previous swing low and dynamic support with 100-day EMA.
– **Moving Averages**:
– 50-day SMA: Currently trending upwards, reflects medium-term bullish sentiment.
– 200-day SMA: Also in an upward slope, confirming long-term buyer dominance.
– **Technical Indicators**:
– RSI (Relative Strength Index): Near 60 on the daily chart, suggesting momentum is in favor of bulls but has room before reaching overbought conditions.
– MACD: Positive histogram, with MACD line over the signal line, indicating bullish momentum.
– Bollinger Bands: Price riding upper band, which indicates high volatility, often a precursor to a breakout.
## Price Action Analysis
The pair recently formed a series of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, a classic bullish trend confirmation. Despite intraday fluctuations and profit-taking movements, the broader trend remains intact. The price is showing healthy retracements and continues to find buyers on dips, a characteristic of a strong uptrend.
Doji and spinning top candlesticks around 1.3860 suggest short-term indecision among traders. However, unless a breakdown below 1.3760 occurs, the bullish structure remains unchallenged.
## Fundamental Drivers
### US Dollar Strength
The U.S. Dollar has remained resilient in the face of shifting global risk appetite due to multiple reasons:
– **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed remains hawkish relative to other global central banks, with interest rates expected to stay higher for longer. This policy stance keeps yield differentials in favor of the USD.
– **Economic Resilience**: Strong non-farm payrolls and steady inflation figures keep expectations of another rate hike alive, adding support to the dollar index (DXY).
– **Geopolitical Tensions**: Broader geopolitical risks (such as in Eastern Europe and the Middle East) have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like the USD.
### Canadian Dollar
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