Weekly Forex Forecast for DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and XAU/USD (November 24–28, 2025)
Original analysis by Justin Bennett, as published on Daily Price Action
Rewritten and expanded by [Your Name]
As we head into the holiday-shortened week of November 24 to 28, 2025, the Forex market is poised for potential volatility, catalyzed partly by thin liquidity due to U.S. Thanksgiving. Traders should be vigilant, as low-volume trading often leads to sharp price spikes and erratic market behavior. This week’s forecast takes a technical approach to five key markets: the US Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and Gold (XAU/USD). This analysis includes updated trendline support and resistance levels, key Fibonacci zones, and a broader macroeconomic outlook—providing traders with actionable levels to monitor.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis
The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate within a well-defined range. Following its failure to break above key resistance in early November 2025, the DXY has been drifting lower, showing signs of potential weakness amid slowing inflation expectations and mixed economic data.
Key Takeaways:
– The ascending trendline from the May 2021 low continues to serve as long-term support. However, the index is now testing a confluence zone marked by both this ascending trendline and horizontal support at the 104.50 level.
– Resistance remains firm near the 106.80 to 107.00 zone, a key reaction area dating back to August 2023.
– A break below 104.50 would open the door for deeper downside movement toward the 102.70 support area.
Fundamental Context:
– With the Federal Reserve pausing its rate hikes since Q3 2025, the USD has retraced some of its multi-year gains.
– Market participants are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of rate cuts in mid-to-late 2026, adding downside pressure to the dollar.
– Data from the CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 68% probability of a rate cut by the July 2026 meeting, which is bearish for the dollar.
Watch Levels:
– Critical Support: 104.50 and 102.70
– Key Resistance: 106.80 and 107.00
– Bias: Bearish below 106.00
EUR/USD Analysis
The euro has been trading in a tight consolidation channel but remains above significant support levels. The pair has built a solid base around the 1.0600 region, which aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels from the July 2023 high to September 2023 low.
Key Technical Highlights:
– EUR/USD remains above ascending trendline support that began forming in early October 2025.
– Immediate resistance sits near 1.0930—a level that capped price advances last week.
– A bullish breakout above 1.0930 would target 1.1000 and eventually 1.1100.
– Failure to hold above the 1.0800 level might pave the way for a retest of 1.0600.
Macro Forces:
– The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a neutral policy stance, juggling inflation priorities and recession concerns.
– Flash PMI releases from Germany and France this week could provide near-term volatility.
– If inflation expectations continue to recede, further EUR strength could materialize.
Watch Levels:
– Critical Support: 1.0800 and 1.0600
– Key Resistance: 1.0930 and 1.1000
– Bias: Neutral to Bullish while above 1.0800
GBP/USD Analysis
Sterling has rebounded impressively off the 1.2100 area since early November, tracking both dollar softness and improving UK economic indicators. The pair is quickly approaching a long-standing horizontal resistance zone near 1.
Read more on USD/CAD trading.