EUR/USD Forex Signal – Analysis and Predictions for November 25, 2025
Originally written by: Adam Lemon, DailyForex.com
Overview:
On November 25, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair displayed a generally bearish outlook, with minor price fluctuations around key levels of resistance and support. Although the market did not experience significant directional movement during the most recent Asian session, the ongoing downtrend and prevailing economic factors continue to favor short positions, particularly near resistance levels. This article provides an in-depth technical analysis, an overview of market sentiment, a review of economic fundamentals influencing the pair, and actionable trade recommendations for intraday traders and swing traders alike.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trend downward from a medium-term technical perspective. Recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating within a bearish structure, forming lower highs and lower lows over the past few weeks.
Key Technical Levels:
– Resistance Levels:
– 1.0939: Established swing high from earlier this month, serving as a key resistance.
– 1.0918: High from the previous Friday’s trading session.
– 1.0900: Psychological round number and minor structural resistance.
– Support Levels:
– 1.0848: Recent low formed during last week’s bearish movement.
– 1.0831: Multi-day low, forming a technical floor in the short term.
– 1.0800: Strong psychological support and potential target for bearish trades.
Technical Indicators:
– 50-Day Moving Average: The pair is currently trading below the 50-day simple moving average, signaling sustained downward momentum.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI levels are neutral to slightly bearish, remaining below the 50-mark, which indicates potential for further downside.
– MACD: The MACD histogram is in negative territory and shows a relatively weak momentum toward either direction but still leans slightly bearish.
Chart Patterns and Price Action:
– The pair shows price rejection near the 1.0900 and 1.0918 resistance levels, indicating selling pressure entering the market at those points.
– A clean breakout above 1.0939 would possibly shift sentiment, though such a breakout seems unlikely without strong fundamental catalysts.
– Bearish engulfing patterns formed near local highs on previous daily candles affirm seller dominance in those regions.
Market Sentiment:
Traders across both retail and institutional platforms continue to favor bearish sentiment on the EUR/USD. The downtrend persists amid a stronger US Dollar driven by monetary policy divergence, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher bond yields.
– Sentiment polls from major forex brokers show an increase in short positioning.
– Open interest data also indicates that more traders are adding to short positions rather than attempting to buy dips.
– The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to show strength, supported by longer-term economic prospects in the United States.
Fundamental Drivers:
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical elements support the current bearish sentiment on EUR/USD.
1. Diverging Interest Rate Expectations:
– The Federal Reserve appears committed to maintaining elevated interest rates for longer due to persistent inflation concerns in the United States.
– The European Central Bank, by contrast, is facing stagnating growth and declining inflation pressures, making further rate hikes increasingly unlikely.
– Yield differentials between US Treasuries and European government debt favor capital flows into USD-denominated assets.
2. Economic Data Trends:
– US retail sales and labor markets have remained robust, keeping expectations for a potential Fed rate cut lower until mid-2026.
– The Eurozone, by contrast, has posted weaker-than-expected GDP figures, along with lackluster industrial production—further reinforcing the dovish ECB outlook.
– Recent PMI numbers show contraction in key European economies such as Germany and France.
3. Political and Geopolitical Concerns:
– Ongoing political uncertainty in certain Eurozone member states, coupled with tensions in Eastern Europe, is weighing
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