EUR/USD Technical Analysis – November 26, 2025
Original article credit: DailyForex.com, authored by Mahmoud Abdallah
Overview
On November 26, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a bearish tone, marked by a retreat from recent highs. This ongoing bearish sentiment is fueled by the persistent strength of the US dollar, supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, dovish indications from the European Central Bank (ECB) and weakening economic indicators across the Eurozone contributed to downward pressure on the euro.
As of the last daily session, the EUR/USD traded close to 1.0840 after failing to gain traction above the psychological barrier at 1.0900. The pair tumbled after testing the highest levels in over two months and now moves cautiously as traders watch for macroeconomic data and monetary policy developments from both sides of the Atlantic.
Fundamental Drivers Behind the Pair’s Movement
Several fundamental factors are influencing the EUR/USD currency pair:
Hawkish Federal Reserve Policy:
– Federal Reserve officials are maintaining their stance that more time is required before initiating a rate cut.
– Recent statements from Fed members emphasized data-dependency in future decisions, which lent support to the US dollar.
– A stronger-than-expected performance in US economic data continues to diminish expectations of rate cuts in the short term.
European Central Bank’s Dovish Outlook:
– The ECB’s cautious tone in recent communications hints at growing concerns over economic stagnation within the Eurozone.
– Persistently weak inflation numbers and slowing growth may prompt the central bank to consider looser monetary policy sooner than the Fed.
– Divergent paths between the ECB and the Fed reinforce downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Macroeconomic Data Disparities:
– US economic indicators such as GDP growth, consumer spending, and labor market strength continue to beat forecasts, giving the dollar a relative advantage.
– Conversely, data from Germany, France, and the Eurozone as a whole reveal a stagnating economy, particularly in manufacturing and services sectors.
– Inflation shows signs of softening in the Eurozone, undermining arguments for monetary tightening.
Technical Analysis: Price Action and Key Levels
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair displays clear signs of bearish momentum after failing to maintain its bullish breakout above 1.0900. The rejection from this key resistance level invites increased selling pressure and opens the door to a potential retest of recently established support zones.
Key Technical Observations:
– The pair formed a bearish candle on the daily chart after failing to break resistance at 1.0900.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has descended near the neutral mark, currently near 50, signaling stalling momentum and a balance of power between bulls and bears.
– The pair shows strong correlation with the 200-day moving average, which lies closer to the 1.0800 level. A move below this level may accelerate downward momentum.
Significant Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
1.0800 – A psychologically important level and the location of the 200-day moving average. A definitive break below it could invite further downside pressure.
1.0760 – A recent low seen in earlier November 2025; a breach here would reinforce the bearish bias.
1.0685 – Marks the next key support zone, representing a two-month low and a target for sellers in the event of escalated downward movement.
Resistance Levels:
1.0900 – A key psychological and technical resistance level that the pair failed to sustain during the most recent bullish move.
1.0950 – A further upside target where recent uptrend momentum was capped in August 2025.
1.1000 – A major psychological barrier where aggressive sellers may resume positions, limiting euro upside.
Moving Averages:
– 50-day moving average: Currently acting as dynamic resistance near 1.0880, any successful break above this line could ignite another bullish wave.
– 200
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