Title: EUR/USD Forecast and Technical Outlook – December 1, 2025
Based on the original analysis by Thomas Long at DailyForex.com
The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the final day of November 2025 on a strong note, reinforcing bullish sentiment among traders and analysts. Recent price action suggests that the euro remains well-supported against the US dollar as confidence continues to build in a sustained upward trend. By examining the euro’s performance, recent technical trends, and potential support and resistance zones, we can gain a clearer picture of where this major currency pair may be headed in the near and medium term.
Below is a detailed breakdown and technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair as of December 1, 2025.
Recent Price Action and Monthly Summary
– November 2025 ended with the EUR/USD pair trading at approximately 1.1010, recording a significant monthly gain of more than 3.5%.
– This rally marks the strongest monthly performance for the pair in over a year, supported by diminishing strength in the US dollar and constructive macroeconomic data from the Eurozone.
– Throughout the month, the pair consistently carved higher highs, signaling that bullish momentum has been steadily building.
– During the final week of November, the currency pair tested several important resistance levels, breaking through key technical ceilings and laying the groundwork for further potential gains.
– On Friday, November 29, the pair closed near the 1.1010 mark, suggesting that the bullish trend is not yet exhausted.
Technical Indicators and Trend Strength
– The pair continues to trade above both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming that bullish sentiment dominates the long-term and medium-term picture.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart remains in positive territory, with the MACD line holding above the signal line. This technical configuration supports continued upward pressure.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently situated near 64, well below the overbought threshold of 70, implying there is room for further upside before momentum becomes overstretched.
– Ichimoku Cloud analysis also supports a bullish bias. The price remains above the cloud, and the Chikou span is positioned favorably.
– The creation of a strong bullish engulfing candle during one of the final trading days of the month reinforces traders’ conviction and further supports upward continuation.
Support and Resistance Zones
Based on recent price behavior and historical data points, the following key levels should be closely watched:
Resistance Levels:
– 1.1045: Near-term resistance that corresponds to highs from August 2023.
– 1.1090–1.1100: Psychological barrier and swing high from April 2023.
– 1.1180: Previous supply zone tested multiple times in 2022 and 2023. A breakout above this level would unlock significant upside potential.
– 1.1270: Strong macro-resistance level dating back to late 2021.
Support Levels:
– 1.0955: Immediate support tested on intraday pullbacks.
– 1.0900: Strong psychological support and previously established resistance that could now turn into a floor.
– 1.0830: Fibonacci retracement level of recent bullish move.
– 1.0760: 50-day EMA and a robust support zone from earlier in November.
Fundamental Drivers Behind the Bullish Bias
Alongside favorable technical trends, several fundamental factors are contributing to the strength of the euro and weakness in the US dollar:
– The European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a pause in rate hikes but emphasized a stable forward guidance approach, alleviating fears of premature easing. This has lent support to the euro.
– Euro area inflation appears to be stabilizing, with recent data pointing toward gradual disinflation without creating deep concerns about economic stagnation.
– Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve’s more dovish tone has
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