**The GBP/USD Is Deepening Its Losses – Analysis 14-07-2025**
*Original analysis by Economies.com*
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The GBP/USD currency pair, a crucial barometer for both the global currency markets and indicators of UK and US economic health, extends its downward momentum in mid-July 2025. As fluctuating economic policies, central bank pronouncements, and macroeconomic data releases continue to steer global FX trends, the British Pound faces mounting selling pressure against the US Dollar. In this detailed analysis, we explore present market conditions, recent GBP/USD price actions, key technical levels, and fundamental factors influencing this major pair.
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### Recent Performance and Market Backdrop
The GBP/USD lost further ground in recent sessions, reflecting a sustained bearish trend. After failing to sustain gains above pivotal resistance levels, the pair has seen incremental declines, exacerbating concerns among bullish traders. On July 14, 2025, the GBP/USD traded at multi-week lows, pressured by a cocktail of negative local and international themes.
Key factors driving the latest movements include:
– Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary indicating a longer-than-expected period of higher US interest rates.
– Lingering post-Brexit uncertainty as the UK economy faces persistent structural challenges.
– Weak UK macroeconomic releases, underwhelming PMI figures, and a declining services sector.
– A resilient US payrolls report and robust US economic growth relative to other G7 economies.
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### Technical Overview
#### Price Action Recap
In the past week, the GBP/USD exchange rate has staged a pronounced retreat from its previously tested resistance zone. Multiple attempts to reclaim bullish momentum have reversed, affirming sellers’ dominance.
Pertinent technical highlights:
– The pair breached the short and medium-term support at 1.2650, accelerating selling pressure.
– Daily candle closes below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) reinforced the bearish momentum.
– Downside break below 1.2610 exposed further support levels, with bears aiming for deeper retracement targets.
#### Key Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Resistance:** 1.2650, 1.2700
– **Major Support:** 1.2570, 1.2500, then 1.2465
If sellers breach the 1.2500 handle, bearish momentum could extend towards late Q2 2025 lows near 1.2465 and potentially further towards the psychological 1.2400 level.
#### Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators
Several bearish technical signals are now in play:
– **Moving Averages:** Both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are now sloping downwards, with prices consistently failing to close above these levels.
– **Momentum Oscillators:** The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 mark, approaching oversold territory, but not yet signaling exhaustion.
– **Bearish Flag Formation:** The recent price consolidation after the decline now resembles a bear flag, raising the probability of another downward leg if confirmed by a clear support break.
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### Fundamental Drivers
#### US Dollar Strength
The US Dollar, benefiting from relatively robust US macroeconomic releases and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, has outperformed many G10 currencies. A strong nonfarm payroll report, consecutive rises in inflation measures, and sticky core CPI numbers have all contributed to expectations that the Fed will maintain its restricted policy stance for longer.
**Key bullish USD factors:**
– Elevated US Treasury yields underpinning dollar demand.
– Fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2025.
– Global investors seeking safety in the dollar amid volatile equity and commodity markets.
#### UK Economic Challenges
The UK faces mounting headwinds, from persistent inflationary pressures and stagnating wage growth to continued trade disruptions in the aftermath of Brexit. Business confidence indices remain tepid, while growth data offers little optimism for a near-term turnaround.
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