EUR/USD Forecast for July 15, 2025
Original analysis by: Hassan Maishera, DailyForex.com
Rewritten and expanded version by request.
Overview
The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a minor recovery in trading activity on July 15, 2025, following a pullback in the U.S. dollar. Despite encountering resistance throughout the previous week’s trading sessions, the pair has managed to stay within a defined range, supported by positive sentiment from recent Eurozone data and restrained anticipation around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. However, the underlying strength of the U.S. dollar and concerns about the broader European economic landscape are keeping the pair from a meaningful breakout.
This analysis explores the technical and fundamental outlook for EUR/USD, reviews the recent performance of the currency pair, and presents possible trading scenarios based on chart patterns, support/resistance levels, and upcoming market drivers.
Recent Market Context
In the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair faced persistent downward pressure, largely influenced by the strength of the U.S. dollar. That strength was fueled by several key factors:
– Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including robust non-farm payroll results and steady service sector performance
– The Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts
– A flight to safety driven by geopolitical tensions and the global risk sentiment, bolstering the greenback
– Market expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the U.S.
Contrastingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a dovish tone, with policymakers signaling potential rate cuts in the near term should inflationary pressures ease. This divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the ECB has contributed to a broader downward bias for the EUR/USD pair.
Key Technical Levels
The EUR/USD pair traded close to the 1.0815 level as of the morning session on July 15, 2025. While the pair has not made substantial directional moves, a consolidation range is forming, hinting at possible breakout or retracement scenarios. Notable technical levels include:
– Support Levels:
– 1.0780: The first major support zone from last week’s lows
– 1.0750: A strong technical base that held during previous pullbacks
– 1.0700: A psychological round-number support that saw buying interest in earlier sessions
– Resistance Levels:
– 1.0850: A barrier that capped the upside several times over the past week
– 1.0885: A resistance structure formed during minor rally attempts
– 1.0930–1.0950: The upper boundary of a medium-term price channel
Bollinger Bands and moving averages show limited volatility, suggesting that traders are awaiting a catalyst to break the current range-bound behavior.
Fundamental Catalysts to Watch
Several factors are influencing the EUR/USD landscape. Traders should watch for the following macroeconomic themes:
U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook:
– The Fed remains data-dependent, with expectations for interest rate cuts gradually receding.
– Recent labor market strength and persistent inflation indicators suggest a possible delay in easing policy.
– If Fed officials continue signaling a hawkish bias, this could support further dollar strength.
European Central Bank Policy:
– ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that future rate moves would depend heavily on inflation data.
– Core inflation in the Eurozone has been falling, increasing the likelihood of rate reductions in Q3 2025.
– Dovish ECB commentary may act as a headwind for the euro in the near term.
Eurozone Economic Indicators:
– Industrial production, consumer sentiment, and inflation reports from Germany, France, and Italy remain critical.
– Disappointing data could validate economic slowdown concerns and apply further pressure on the euro.
Geopolitical Factors:
– Trade tensions between China and the U.S., developments in Ukraine, and EU political dynamics may add volatility.
– Rising energy prices or commodity market disruptions could also
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