Title: USD/CAD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Economic Developments – In-Depth Analysis
Original Author: Economies.com, Analysis published July 17, 2025
Rewritten and Expanded by [Your Name or Publication Name]
The USD/CAD currency pair has recently experienced a notable upwards push, buoyed by shifting technical indicators, macroeconomic data from both countries, and evolving market sentiment. In this detailed analysis, we’ll examine the key drivers behind the recent appreciation of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, technical signals pointing to future price action, and broader economic factors influencing the pair. The original analysis published by Economies.com has been used as a reference and is supplemented here with additional data and expert commentary.
Market Performance Overview
On July 17, 2025, the USD/CAD pair moved higher, supported by a combination of technical breakouts and economic fundamentals. The pair found stability above the 1.3600 support level, which was previously an area of contention over the past few weeks. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint at strengthening bullish momentum, indicating potential for further upward movement.
Key Technical Highlights
According to the original report on Economies.com and current chart analysis, the following technical observations stand out:
– The price of USD/CAD has settled above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting continued bullish bias.
– The formation of a higher-low structure reinforces the optimistic momentum.
– A possible short-term resistance level lies at 1.3680, followed by a major psychological barrier near 1.3750.
– Sustained movement above these levels may set the stage for a retest of 1.3835, the April high.
– On the downside, support is firmly established at 1.3600, which has now flipped from resistance.
Forecast Outlook:
– Short-Term Trend: Bullish
– Technical Support Levels: 1.3600, 1.3535
– Technical Resistance Levels: 1.3680, 1.3750, 1.3835
The original article suggested a continuation of upward movement on the condition that USD/CAD holds above 1.3600. Analysis from other sources, including DailyFX and FXStreet, corroborates this outlook, highlighting the impact of recent US economic indicators and relative weakness in Canadian economic performance.
Fundamental Drivers of USD/CAD Movement
The upward push in the USD/CAD exchange rate is not occurring in isolation. Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are contributing to the pair’s recent strength.
1. US Economic Strength:
The US economy continues to show signs of resilience in 2025. The Federal Reserve, though maintaining a cautious stance, remains relatively hawkish compared to the Bank of Canada (BoC). Highlights include:
– US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025 rose by 0.3% month-over-month, above market expectations of 0.2%.
– Annual core inflation still remains elevated at 3.6%, which supports the case for interest rates to stay “higher for longer.”
– Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for June beat forecasts, with the US economy adding 265,000 jobs versus the expected 210,000.
These developments helped lift the US dollar index (DXY), which in turn provided a tailwind to USD/CAD.
2. Crude Oil Price Volatility:
As Canada is a major oil exporter, the price of crude oil directly affects the value of its currency. Oil prices have been under pressure recently due to mixed global demand signals and increased supply fears:
– Brent crude is trading below $78 per barrel, a notable drop from the yearly high of over $86 seen in Q1 2025.
– Concerns over slow construction and industrial activity in China, the second-largest oil consumer, are adding
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