Based on the original article “USD/JPY Daily Outlook” published by ActionForex.com (https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/604671-usd-jpy-daily-outlook-2184/), the following is a rewritten and expanded version of the analysis, fully crediting the original source while ensuring deeper insight and length for comprehensive trader understanding.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Daily Outlook
Prepared by ActionForex.com, the USD/JPY pair’s latest movement reflects key price action developments worth evaluating for short- and medium-term strategies. As of the current trading session, the pair remains engaged in a fleeting pullback, but underlying momentum suggests that the bullish structure stays intact. This article presents a detailed technical outlook on USD/JPY, emphasizing support and resistance levels, momentum analysis, chart formation, indicators, and potential price trajectories for the coming sessions.
Overview of Price Movement
– USD/JPY recently reached a high just shy of the 157.70 mark, aligning broadly with the peak of 157.70 established in April 2022, then retreated modestly.
– A minor pullback is underway, yet momentum indicators and trend lines suggest that the broader upward bias is still preserved.
– Unless notable support zones give way, this move is expected to be a temporary correction as opposed to a trend reversal.
Analysis of Support and Resistance Levels
Current key technical levels are as follows:
Support Levels:
– 155.33: This is the immediate level of support and represents the minor low formed in earlier trading sessions. A firm break below this line would signal the beginning of a deeper pullback phase.
– 152.76: Located near the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this level is more critical. A sustained break here would suggest the possibility of a trend shift or deeper correction.
– 150.00–150.90 zone: A strong psychological barrier, this range has acted historically as a pivot area over the past two months.
Resistance Levels:
– 157.70: This level constitutes a significant resistance, being both a psychological round number and a historical peak from previous cycles.
– 160.00: This level is not just a psychological barrier but also a projected level based on current trend continuation and Fibonacci projection.
Technical Indicators and Chart Patterns
The movement of the USD/JPY pair can be better understood by looking closely at various chart patterns and momentum indicators.
Momentum Indicators:
– RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently hovering around the 65–70 band, the RSI shows that the pair is approaching overbought levels but is not yet at a critical divergence zone. This implies that while caution is warranted, buyers still maintain short-term control.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Even though the MACD line remains above the signal line, suggesting continuation of bullish momentum, histogram bars are flattening, which reflects a potential weakening of upward acceleration.
Moving Averages:
– The 20-day EMA remains supportive and is well below the current price level, showing that short-term dynamics are firmly bullish.
– The 55-day EMA, currently near 152.76, serves as a key structural support. The rising slope continues to validate the prevailing uptrend.
– 100- and 200-day EMAs are trending sharply upward and remain below 150. These averages reinforce that the broader bull trend retains structural strength.
Price Action and Trend Structure
– Daily candlesticks show long wicks on recent highs, suggesting some selling pressure as prices approach resistance at 157.70. However, these wicks are currently contained and not accompanied by volume cliffs or large bearish engulfing patterns.
– The general price structure since early March 2024 remains in a clearly defined ascending channel.
– Current price action is merely testing the upper boundary and pulling back, indicating a channel-bound consolidation rather than full reversal.
Elliott Wave Implication
From an Elliott Wave perspective
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