**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis and Outlook**
*Based on the article by ActionForex, with additional context and analysis for enhanced insight.*
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**Overview:**
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been in a complex phase against the US Dollar (USD) through the previous week. AUD/USD has been closely watched due to shifting global risk sentiment, evolving macroeconomic data from the US and Australia, and central bank outlook. In this extended analysis, we cover the latest price action, technical levels, macroeconomic drivers, and the near and medium-term scenarios impacting AUD/USD, referencing ActionForex’s original weekly report and supplementing it with current market context.
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**Recent Price Action and Weekly Recap**
– AUD/USD saw modest gains early in the week but reversed those gains and closed lower, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.
– The pair attempted several times to break above resistance but failed, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels.
– By week’s end, the pair had settled back near short-term support, as US Dollar strength reemerged.
**Technical Review**
*Key Levels & Patterns:*
– **Immediate Support:** 0.6579, near the week’s low, represents a critical short-term floor.
– **Immediate Resistance:** 0.6713, set by the weekly high and marking the top of the recent corrective move.
– **Intermediate Support:** 0.6469, a strong pivot that held in May and has signaled several turns in price action.
– **Intermediate Resistance:** 0.6703, the March swing high which remains an upper cap for bullish momentum.
*Trend Perspective:*
– The broader trend since the late April low (0.6361) has been cautiously positive but capped within a range.
– Bulls have struggled to establish a decisive upside breakout due to a mix of local macro challenges and global Dollar demand.
– The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral but tilting slightly to the bearish side, suggesting the risk of further softness if support fails.
*Moving Averages and Oscillators:*
– **21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA):** Currently trading near spot price, highlighting consolidation.
– **50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA):** Slightly below recent price action, supporting the idea of underlying medium-term buying interest but without conviction.
– **MACD Histogram:** Slightly negative on the daily chart, indicating waning upward momentum for the time being.
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**Drivers Behind Recent Moves**
*1. Diverging US-Australia Monetary Policy Outlooks:*
– The Federal Reserve remains committed to a “higher for longer” rate stance given persistent US inflation, most recently signaled by relatively hawkish FOMC minutes.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), while concerned about domestic inflation, has not signaled imminent rate hikes. Unemployment data and retail sales have been mixed, keeping the RBA on a cautious footing.
– This divergence has
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