Author: Greg Michalowski
Source: ForexLive (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-moves-up-to-test-the-200-hour-ma-also-testing-key-swing-area-at-11663-to-11691-20250718/)
EUR/USD Tests Key Resistance Levels: Technical Outlook and Market Implications
The euro (EUR) gained traction against the US dollar (USD) during the latest trading session, pushing the EUR/USD pair to test meaningful technical resistance levels. This move carries implications for short-term market sentiment and provides traders with important clues regarding the pair’s next directional move. As of the most recent price action, EUR/USD is challenging two crucial levels:
– The 200-hour moving average (200-HMA)
– A well-established swing-area resistance between approximately 1.1663 and 1.1691
Understanding where price stands relative to these levels can help traders assess the strength of the recent upward momentum and predict whether buyers have enough conviction to drive gains higher.
Overview of the Current Price Action
EUR/USD has seen renewed bullish momentum as the currency pair retraced higher during the recent trading session. The pair has risen from recent lows and is currently testing the following:
– The 200-hour moving average currently sits near the 1.1680 mark
– A swing-area between 1.1663 and 1.1691 has been a historically significant resistance zone
Price climbed up to touch the 200-hour moving average, which in turn aligns closely with the top of the swing-zone area. Traders and analysts often watch for market reactions at this level to gauge next market moves.
Technical Breakdown of Key Resistance Levels
The first point of significant resistance comes from the 200-hour moving average, which is a trend-following tool widely used by technical analysts. When price crosses above the 200-HMA, it may signal a shift toward bullish momentum. Conversely, if price fails to break above it convincingly, it may point to upward exhaustion or continuation of the broader downtrend.
– The 200-hour moving average has contained price both as support and resistance in previous trading sessions
– Price action has mostly stayed below it during recent downward trends, indicating a previous bearish tone
– Buyers now attempt to break through this level, making it a pivotal point in the current short-term outlook
The second key area under scrutiny is the swing zone between 1.1663 and 1.1691:
– This zone has acted as strong resistance on multiple occasions over recent sessions
– Sellers previously entered firmly within this price band, leading to sharp declines
– For buyers, a break above this zone may validate a near-term bullish bias and suggest the potential for a more sustained upside move
The combination of these two overlapping resistance indicators adds weight to the idea that the current market level is highly significant.
What Happens if Price Breaks Higher?
If EUR/USD can gather enough bullish pressure to move above both the 200-HMA and the 1.1691 level, it sets the stage for further upward movement in the near term. In such a scenario, traders would likely eye the next resistance targets, which include:
– Psychological and round number resistance near 1.1700
– The 100-day moving average may come into play above 1.1700
– Swing highs from previous monthly candles that reside between 1.1715 and 1.1740
Momentum indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) will be essential to monitor during such a breakout. A strong move above these layers would indicate a shift in sentiment and the re-emergence of bullish conviction.
However, not all breakouts are sustained. False breakouts above critical resistance can trigger abrupt reversals. Therefore, traders would want to closely observe volume participation, candlestick structure (e.g., long wicks or engulfing patterns), and confirmation from other correlated instruments such as the
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