**EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook**
*Original Source: ActionForex.com – Article by ActionForex Analysts*
**Overview**
The EUR/USD pair experienced some volatility this past week, initially testing lower levels before rebounding higher. However, momentum lost steam as it approached resistance levels, leaving the broader trend outlook neutral in the short-term. Traders and analysts are carefully watching the key support and resistance zones that could dictate further price action. The upcoming week promises potential directional shifts influenced by both technical indicators and macroeconomic factors.
**Current Market Conditions**
– The EUR/USD moved upward to test the 1.0915 level during the week, but failed to break convincingly above that threshold.
– After testing this resistance zone, the pair quickly retreated and established a near-term ceiling around the 1.0910 mark.
– The price has remained above the 1.0800 handle, suggesting some support in that region, though upside momentum appears to be weakening.
– The support region between 1.0600 and 1.0640 remains intact, having successfully held off downward pressure earlier in the month.
**Technical Analysis**
*Trend Overview*
– Daily and weekly indicators suggest a broad consolidation phase is still in play.
– Resistance around 1.0915 blocked upward momentum for a second time.
– The 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains an important technical barrier.
– While the medium-term structure indicates a sideways price action, short-term dips are still being bought, maintaining bullish interest.
*Key Support and Resistance Levels*
– **Immediate Resistance**: 1.0915, the high from the week, which coincides with resistance from early May.
– **Secondary Resistance**: 1.1000 psychological barrier, which also aligns with previous highs from March.
– **Immediate Support**: 1.0788, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0600 to 1.0915 rally.
– **Key Support Zone**: 1.0600 to 1.0640, near March’s low and a significant area from prior accumulation ranges.
**Price Momentum and Indicators**
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering around neutral levels, suggesting lack of bullish urgency and indicating bounded price movement in recent sessions.
– MACD histograms have flattened, and MACD lines are closely intertwined, providing further evidence of a consolidation phase.
– The 200-day Moving Average is trending gradually upward and currently sits near 1.0750, acting as longer-term support.
**Weekly Chart Insights**
– On the weekly chart, EUR/USD remains range-bound, trading within a horizontal channel formed between 1.0600 and 1.1000.
– The MACD on the weekly chart is bearish but recovering, showing that downside pressure may be waning, although momentum hasn’t yet flipped positive.
– The pair also continues to form higher lows on longer-term charts, preserving a tentative longer-term uptrend bias, provided the 1.0600 support holds.
**Possible Scenarios and Forecasts**
*Bullish Scenario*
Should the EUR/USD manage to gain positive momentum and close above the current resistance near 1.0915:
– A clear break could open the way for retesting the 1.1000 psychological mark.
– Sustained buying could drive the pair toward the 1.1095 level, aligning with the March 2024 highs.
– Beyond that, next major resistance would be near 1.1140, a previous significant peak.
However, for any bullish scenario to persist:
– Momentum indicators (especially RSI and MACD) need to demonstrate a firm reversal from current flat levels.
– Buyers will need to defend support levels, especially near 1.0788 and 1.0700, to keep upward progression sustainable.
*Bearish Scenario*
On the flip side, a failure to hold above the 1.0788 support
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