Title: In-Depth Forex Technical Outlook for Major Currency Pairs: July 20–26, 2025
Original Analysis by: Crispus Nyaga, DailyForex
As the financial markets look ahead to the final stretch of July, traders and investors are focusing on several key currency pairs amid rising geopolitical tensions, monetary policy divergences, and mixed economic data releases. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the market trends, technical setups, and trading potential for the most popular Forex pairs heading into the week of July 20–26, 2025. This outlook includes an expanded technical breakdown, relevant price action patterns, and factors to watch that may influence price movements.
Overview of Key Market Drivers
During this upcoming trading week, the following macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are expected to have a major influence on major Forex pairs:
– Anticipation of US Federal Reserve comments following recent economic data that suggests stubbornly high inflation.
– Eurozone inflation and PMI data may influence European Central Bank policy expectations.
– The Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary easing stance continues to pressure the yen.
– Rising concerns in China’s property and manufacturing sectors may weigh on global risk sentiment.
– Global equity and bond market volatility, which could fuel safe-haven flows into USD, JPY, or CHF.
Currency Pair Analysis
1. EUR/USD: Strong Resistance at 1.1200 May Cap Rally
The euro-dollar pair ended the previous week on a subdued note, trading near the 1.1140 level after a slight retracement from July’s high of 1.1212. The steady strength of the US dollar and mixed economic data from the Eurozone kept the pair in a consolidation phase.
Technical Setup:
– Support near 1.1100 remains key. A break below this level could lead to a retest of 1.0985, a zone aligned with the 50-day EMA.
– Resistance is now firmly established at 1.1215, a level tested but not breached during the July 18th rally.
– RSI on the daily chart is holding at neutral levels (~53), indicating potential for further consolidation or measured directional moves.
– A rising trendline drawn from the March lows continues to serve as dynamic support.
Fundamental Drivers:
– Watch for the release of EU Composite PMI and CPI for July. Both metrics could reinforce or challenge the ECB’s data-dependent stance.
– In the U.S., housing data and durable goods orders may provide insight into economic resilience and inflation pressures.
Outlook:
Bullish momentum is weakening slightly. If EUR/USD fails to reclaim 1.1215 and holds below 1.1100, the pair could transition into a downtrend. Traders should monitor whether the 200-day SMA, currently around 1.1010, holds firm in case of further selling.
2. GBP/USD: Sterling Shows Resilience, but Faces Key Technical Hurdles
The British pound has outperformed against several major currencies lately, buoyed by firm UK inflation data and hawkish rhetoric from Bank of England officials. However, the GBP/USD pair remains in a tight trading range, reflecting trader caution ahead of employment and GDP reports.
Technical Setup:
– Resistance continues near the 1.3000 psychological level. This round number is layered with previous swing highs reached in early July.
– Support is set at the 1.2860 area, which served as a base during multiple pullbacks earlier this month.
– The 14-day RSI is tracking near 58 points, hinting the pair is neither overbought nor oversold.
– The upward sloping 20-day SMA shows continued bullish trend potential.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch:
– UK unemployment figures (July 23) and GDP growth revisions could tilt Bank of England expectations.
– U.S. macro data will also help determine relative strength between USD and GBP.
Outlook:
If GBP/USD can clear 1.3000 resistance, a sustained move toward 1.
Read more on USD/CAD trading.