**US30, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and Gold: Weekly Forex Forecast**
*By Ibrahim Ashan, originally published on FXStreet*
As the financial markets continue to digest global macroeconomic data and central bank rhetoric, the landscape for major forex pairs and indices remains fluid. The upcoming week brings a plethora of potential catalysts, from US inflation reports to policy statements from the world’s major central banks. This comprehensive outlook covers the technical and fundamental setup for US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average), GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and Gold, featuring fresh analysis and crucial perspectives for traders.
—
**US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Consolidation and Key Levels**
The US equities market has exhibited potent resilience, with the US30 index consolidating within a defined uptrend. As market participants await key inflation data this week, the focus remains on the interplay between robust economic performance and Federal Reserve policy prospects.
– **Technical Setup**
– After recent highs, US30 appears to be consolidating above the 39,800 level, reflecting cautious optimism.
– The 40,000 psychological barrier continues to cap gains, while the 39,500 and 39,350 levels serve as near-term support.
– The index is trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling an intact bullish bias, though momentum is flattening.
– **Fundamental Context**
– Earning season is coming to a close with generally strong profit reports from key sectors, underpinning risk sentiment.
– Upcoming US CPI and PPI data will heavily influence Fed expectations, affecting equities and broader risk appetite.
– Market pricing of Fed rate cuts remains cautious, with the majority of traders expecting a more dovish tilt later in the year.
– **Trading Outlook**
– Sustained trade above 39,800 and a breakout above 40,000 could open the way toward 40,300.
– Conversely, a decisive breach below 39,350 may lead to deeper pullbacks toward 39,000, where buyers previously emerged.
– Vigilant monitoring of macro headlines, particularly those related to inflation, is essential for managing risk and capturing momentum.
—
**GBP/USD: Cautious Optimism Amid Policy Divergence**
Cable is navigating a choppy pattern, weighed down by diverging monetary policy between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. Persistent inflation pressures in the UK contrast with a relatively stable inflationary environment in the US, sparking speculation about the timing and scope of rate adjustments.
– **Technical Setup**
– GBP/USD faces formidable resistance at 1.2800 while finding bids near the 1.2650 mark.
– The pair is oscillating around its 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, highlighting uncertainty and indecision.
– RSI and momentum indicators favor range-bound trading dynamics for the foreseeable future.
– **Fundamental Context**
– The BoE remains reluctant to commit to imminent rate cuts, expressing concerns about wage growth and stubborn core inflation.
– In contrast, Fed officials are taking a cautious stance, with market participants pricing in modest rate cut probabilities for later in the year.
– US CPI and UK GDP data releases are anticipated to provide new direction this week.
– **Trading Outlook**
– A definitive break above 1.2800 could trigger a run toward 1.2900, fueled by short-covering and renewed bullish sentiment.
– Failure to hold 1.2650 would expose 1.2570 and, potentially, a retest of the 1.2500 psychological level.
– Economic data and central bank commentary remain key catalysts for price volatility.
—
**EUR/USD: Adventures at the Technical Crossroads**
The euro-dollar pair is attempting to carve out short-term direction following a period of subdued volatility. Weakness in the eurozone
Read more on GBP/USD trading.