Below is a rewritten and expanded version of the article titled “USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook” originally published by ActionForex. Credit to ActionForex for the original analysis. The content has been elaborated to exceed 1000 words while maintaining the integrity of the technical outlook on the USD/JPY currency pair.
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Title: In-Depth Analysis: USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Source: ActionForex.com
Author: ActionForex Analysts
Original Article: https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/605240-usd-jpy-mid-day-outlook-2119/
Overview:
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to exhibit a neutral near-term outlook as market participants await clearer signals regarding the next major trend direction. Recent sessions have shown declining momentum while maintaining a relatively steady price range. Technical indicators remain mixed, suggesting cautious trading behavior as traders evaluate both intraday levels and broader macroeconomic influences.
Current Price Action:
– The consolidation phase continues after the pair peaked at 151.96 on the last significant push higher.
– A deeper pullback remains in consideration, particularly after failing to make headway beyond the recent high.
– Nonetheless, the outlook remains constructive unless support levels give way decisively.
Key Technical Levels:
– Immediate resistance remains at the 151.96 high, which also acted as temporary structural resistance.
– Immediate support lies around 149.17. A decisive breach below this support, followed closely by the 148.79 level, would alter the short-term bias.
– As long as 148.79 holds, short-term declines are viewed as corrective in nature and part of ongoing bullish structure.
Short-Term Technical Outlook:
– Momentum indicators are neutral on the H4 (four-hour) chart with the MACD flattening, indicating loss of bullish momentum but no imminent reversal signals.
– The RSI is hovering around neutral levels, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
– Price is oscillating around the 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages, reinforcing the consolidated market conditions.
Potential Scenarios in the Short-Term:
1. Bullish Continuation Scenario:
– A firm break above 151.96 would confirm resumption of the uptrend from 140.25.
– Such a breakout would likely open the path toward a retest of the 2022 high around 151.94, followed potentially by psychological resistance near 152.50.
– Beyond 152.50, historical price data shows the next significant resistance zone near 153.50.
2. Bearish Correction Scenario:
– A decisive break below 149.17 and more notably below 148.79 would invalidate the bullish scenario in the near term.
– This would trigger a deeper retracement, targeting support levels at 146.47 and 144.43 respectively.
– Loss of bullish structure could potentially indicate the start of a medium-term correction if supported by macro fundamentals.
Mid-Term Technical Analysis:
– From a daily chart perspective, the bullish reversal from the 140.25 level set a strong foundation for renewed upward momentum.
– The price remains above the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA), which itself is in a rising trajectory, signaling continuing bullish medium-term sentiment.
– The bullish crossover of the 20-day EMA over the 55-day EMA is a positive setup supporting further upside if market dynamics remain in favor.
Notable Daily Chart Observations:
– The ascending triangle formed from the 140.25 low with resistance around 151.96 suggests a potentially explosive breakout.
– If the resistance is broken, we could see an accelerated push upwards, in line with past channel behavior.
– Volume metrics are consistent with a consolidative phase, suggesting market participants are waiting for a catalyst.
Long-Term View:
– The uptrend in USD/JPY remains intact as long as the multi-month trendline from the 2023 low holds.
– The structural higher highs and higher lows pattern confirms bullish
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.