**Australian Dollar Price Action Setups: Detailed Analysis of AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, and AUD/JPY**
*Source: James Stanley, ForexFactory.com*
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to attract significant attention in the global currency markets. As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusts its policy stances and global risk appetite shifts, traders evaluate opportunities in various AUD pairs. This article provides an in-depth technical perspective on three key Australian Dollar crosses: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, and AUD/JPY. It incorporates strategy, support, and resistance levels, and overlays macro catalyst themes such as central bank policy and risk environment.
### AUD/USD: Testing Critical Support after Bullish Breakout
The AUD/USD pair, often considered a barometer for risk sentiment and Chinese economic health, remains influenced by both local and global forces. Recent months have seen some volatility anchored around central bank rhetoric and data prints, particularly related to inflation and growth.
#### Key Technical Levels and Setups
– **Support**
– 0.6600: Recent pullback support coincides with prior resistance from March and May 2024.
– 0.6550: Key swing low providing additional downside support.
– 0.6500: Psychological round number support.
– **Resistance**
– 0.6700: Major resistance that has curbed rallies over the previous month.
– 0.6730-0.6750: Upper resistance band from prior swing highs in late 2023.
#### Technical Observations
AUD/USD staged a strong rally from its April lows, buoyed by heightened speculation that the RBA could maintain relatively firmer monetary policy compared to other central banks. The pair broke out above the 0.6600 handle, pushing into key resistance at 0.6700. However, price was unable to sustain above this level, reversing on renewed US Dollar strength and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.
– **Current Bias**: The pair holds a bullish bias if support at 0.6600 holds on a daily closing basis.
– **Short-Term Outlook**: A daily close below 0.6600, especially beneath 0.6550, could suggest deeper retracement toward 0.6500, possibly unwinding recent bullish momentum.
– **Long-Term Outlook**: Sustained closes above 0.6700 and a breach of the 0.6730–0.6750 zone could put new multi-month highs in focus.
#### Macro Backdrop
– The RBA has maintained a cautious hawkish bias as inflation data remains sticky, particularly in services.
– The US Federal Reserve’s dovish messaging is being counterbalanced lately by stronger US data and a delay in rate cut projections.
– Global risk appetite and Chinese policy stimulus will remain critical factors impacting AUD/USD.
#### Strategy Considerations
– Watch for bullish reversal signals (pin bars, bullish engulfing candles) near 0.
Read more on AUD/USD trading.