**AUD/USD Outlook: Bulls Test 2025 Highs Ahead of Critical CPI Release**
*Original analysis by Matt Weller, FOREX.com; expanded and supplemented with additional insights.*
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The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to attract significant attention as it challenges critical resistance levels against the United States dollar (USD), building on its robust upward momentum in recent months. The AUD/USD pair recently registered fresh highs last seen in early 2023, and market observers are closely watching as traders test the top of a major ascending channel just as Australia is poised to release pivotal inflation data. These developments underscore a potentially transformative period for the currency pair, with outcomes likely to shape trends in the coming weeks.
This detailed analysis explores the current technical configuration of AUD/USD, the driving fundamental factors, and the implications of upcoming economic data. The expanded perspective incorporates additional context from forex strategists and financial market sources to provide traders and investors with a thorough outlook.
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### Recent Performance and Key Drivers
The AUD/USD has demonstrated consistent strength, buoyed by several favorable factors:
– **Commodity Prices:** Rising prices for key Australian exports like iron ore and coal have supported the currency, benefiting from stable demand from China and other trading partners.
– **Relative Economic Performance:** Australia’s economy has exhibited resilience compared to some global peers, maintaining solid employment growth and steady consumer spending despite global uncertainty.
– **Interest Rate Expectations:** Speculation regarding future Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy has become a central influence, with markets watching for signals of rate hikes or dovish shifts, especially in the face of sticky inflation figures.
Since late April 2023, AUD/USD has rallied over 3.5%, moving from just above 0.6400 to levels approaching 0.6730 by June 2024. This surge rekindles questions about the sustainability of the uptrend and highlights the importance of technical resistance zones.
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### AUD/USD Technical Analysis
**Trend Overview:**
– The pair has established a sustained medium-term uptrend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe.
– The latest breakout carried AUD/USD above several critical resistance levels, attracting fresh buying interest.
**Channel Dynamics:**
– Price action is contained within an ascending channel dating back to Q1 2023. The upper boundary of this channel currently acts as a dynamic barrier, situated just below the 0.6800 mark.
– Multiple attempts to decisively break above this channel have met with selling pressure, yet each retracement has found support at progressively higher levels.
**Key Support and Resistance Levels:**
– *Support:*
– 0.6700: A minor psychological and technical support, aligned with recent breakout levels.
– 0.6660: A confluence region housing the 20-day moving average and a recent swing low.
– 0.6590-0.6610: The lower region of the ascending channel, representing strong underlying support in the event of a
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