Certainly. Here is a rewritten, expanded version of the analysis on AUD/USD from ActionForex, with supplemental context and details based on general forex knowledge and the current market environment. The insights from ActionForex (credited accordingly) are woven in and enhanced with additional research and perspective.
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# AUD/USD Technical and Fundamental Outlook – June 2024
_Adapted from ActionForex technical analysis, with additional insights and context._
## Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair, representing the Australian Dollar against the United States Dollar, is a widely watched benchmark in the forex market. The performance of this pair frequently reflects broader themes in global risk sentiment, commodity cycles, and central bank policy differentials. As of early June 2024, the pair remains under pressure due to a combination of domestic and international factors, including monetary policy divergence, relative economic data, and ongoing shifts in commodity prices.
Below, we dive into the technical and fundamental outlook for AUD/USD, integrating recent data and projections.
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## Latest Technical Picture (Adapted from ActionForex)
### Key Developments
– **Short-term Trend:** AUD/USD has shown continued downward momentum in the short term, confirming a bearish bias that has persisted through the first half of 2024.
– **Immediate Resistance:** The first notable technical barrier lies near 0.6688. This level has acted as a ceiling in recent sessions, containing attempts at recovery.
– **Immediate Support:** The nearest key support is found at 0.6579. A clear break under this level would indicate renewed downside momentum.
### Technical Indicators
– **Momentum Oscillators:** Daily momentum indicators, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD, are trending lower, reinforcing bearish momentum.
– **Moving Averages:** The pair remains below both 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, illustrating short- and medium-term downward bias.
– **Fibonacci Retracement:** According to recent ActionForex analysis, a decisive break beneath 0.6579 could open up Fibonacci retracement targets closer to 0.6461, which represents the 61.8% retracement of the 0.6361 to 0.6713 rise.
### ActionForex Commentary Summary
– As per ActionForex, short-term bias is tilted downward while AUD/USD stays below 0.6688 resistance. Sustained buying would only be considered on a confirmed break above this level, potentially shifting focus toward 0.6713. However, unless that happens, sellers retain the upper hand.
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## Broader Technical Context
### Medium-term Range
Since late 2023, AUD/USD has mostly traded within a broad sideways range, reflecting the uncertain interplay between US dollar strength and shifting sentiment toward China, a major driver of demand for Australian commodities. The pair’s rallies toward the 0.68 handle have tended to be capped by persistent US dollar demand, while dips below 0.65 are often met by bids from value-seeking buyers.
Read more on AUD/USD trading.