**Chart of the Day: GBP/USD (25 July 2025)**
*By Market Analysis Desk, XTB (Original author credit to XTB)*
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The foreign exchange market continuously offers new insights and trading opportunities, with the GBP/USD currency pair, often referred to as “Cable”, frequently commanding trader attention due to its liquidity, volatility, and relevance to broader macroeconomic trends. On July 25th, 2025, GBP/USD dynamics present a compelling snapshot, illuminating both recent developments and potential scenarios as the year progresses. This analysis leverages market data, economic releases, and technical considerations, drawing upon insights from the Market Analysis Desk at XTB, the original author of the referenced article.
# GBP/USD Overview and Recent Market Context
GBP/USD is a major currency pair representing the British pound sterling’s value relative to the US dollar. Over the past several years, Cable has been particularly sensitive to shifting economic policies, global risk appetite, and central bank strategies.
## Key Themes Influencing GBP/USD
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical trends have dominated in the lead-up to July 25, 2025:
– **Divergence in Central Bank Policies:**
– After a period of synchronized tightening, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) are now proceeding on different policy paths.
– The Fed has paused and signaled a data-dependent approach, while the BoE faces inflationary pressures mixed with sluggish growth.
– **Inflation Performance:**
– UK inflation eased to more comfortable levels but remains above the BoE’s target, forcing policymakers into a difficult position.
– The US has seen inflation move closer to target levels, leading to speculation that rate cuts may be imminent.
– **Economic Growth:**
– The UK economy is showing mixed signs, with services outperforming manufacturing and construction, while consumer confidence remains tentative.
– The US continues to post steady job creation and resilient GDP growth, supporting the greenback.
– **Political Developments:**
– Uncertainty around UK fiscal policy and post-Brexit trade arrangements continues to pressure GBP.
– US political landscape draws attention as presidential election year factors play into risk sentiment.
– **Global Market Sentiment:**
– Risk-on/off flows, shaped by geopolitical tensions and global economic data, create headwinds or tailwinds for GBP/USD.
# Price Action and Technical Analysis
On July 25th, 2025, GBP/USD trades within a significant range, reflecting both market indecision and positioning ahead of upcoming economic releases.
## Recent Price Movement
– GBP/USD has oscillated within a 1.2700–1.2900 channel since mid-July.
– Repeated attempts to breach 1.2900 have failed, suggesting firm resistance.
– Dips towards 1.2700 have found buyers, indicating strong short-term support.
### Notable Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Description |
|————-|—————-|———————————–|
| 1.2900-1.2920 | Resistance | Recent swing highs, psychological barrier |
| 1.2820-1.2840 | Near-term support | Former resistance, now acting as support |
| 1.2770 | Support | Late-June low, critical for bulls |
| 1.2720-1.2700 | Major support | Channel base, multi-week low |
### Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators
– **Moving Averages:** GBP/USD trades near the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA supports the pair, but momentum is flattening.
– **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** Approaches neutral reading around 54, implying no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
– **Fibonacci Retracement:** The rally from June lows to July peaks sees 38.2 percent retracement at 1.2820
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