**Weekly Forex Forecast: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD (July 28 – August 1, 2025)**
*Adapted and expanded upon from original analysis by Justin Bennett, Daily Price Action*
The forex market enters the last week of July 2025 with a mix of technical patterns and fundamental catalysts at play. The US Dollar continued to assert its dominance last week, supported by resilient economic data and shifting market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Meanwhile, major pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCHF face critical support and resistance levels, while XAUUSD nears a pivotal decision zone.
In this in-depth weekly forecast, we dissect the technical setups and fundamental themes for DXY (US Dollar Index), EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD from July 28 through August 1, 2025. All technical levels are carefully referenced, and actionable strategies are laid out for traders.
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**US Dollar Index (DXY): Sluggish Momentum, Awaiting a Breakout**
The DXY put in a solid performance last week, but momentum showed signs of waning as it approached well-watched resistance. The Dollar Index continues to trade within a persistent sideways range, and a breakout in either direction could dictate August’s market tone.
**Key Observations:**
– DXY remains range-bound, consolidating between 105.00 (key support) and 106.50 (notable resistance) for several weeks.
– Pullbacks remain shallow, suggesting that buyers are stepping in on dips, but repeated rejections at the upper boundary indicate exhaustion.
– The 200-day moving average, currently sitting near 105.50, acts as a magnetic midpoint.
– Daily and weekly close above 106.50 could unleash further upside, potentially inviting bullish targets toward 107.40 and 108.20.
– On the downside, a failure to hold the 105.00 mark would make 104.40 and 103.80 immediate technical levels to watch.
**Trading Considerations:**
– Breakout traders may look for a decisive close outside the established range before committing to new positions.
– Mean reversion or range traders may continue to trade bounces and rejections, with stops outside the range extremes for risk control.
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**EURUSD: Caught in a Tight Bearish Channel, Eyes on 1.0800**
European currency markets faced another challenging week, punctuated by soft economic surveys and persistent political uncertainty. EURUSD failed to sustain rebound attempts, remaining anchored below key moving averages.
**Technical Outlook:**
– The pair has formed a descending channel structure, with lower highs and lower lows since mid-June 2025.
– Immediate resistance stands at 1.0920, where last week’s rally faltered, and coincides with the channel’s upper boundary.
– Support is situated at the 1.0820 horizontal level, with the psychological 1.0800 acting as a must-hold zone for bulls.
– A daily close below 1.0800 would open up deeper losses towards 1.0720 and possibly 1.0650.
– Conversely, if bulls reclaim 1.0920, the next upside objectives are found at 1.0960 and the round 1.1000 handle.
**Weekly Recap and Fundamental Factors:**
– Investors remain focused on incoming Eurozone consumer inflation data and any fresh signals regarding policy intent from the European Central Bank.
– Deteriorating economic momentum and relative policy divergence versus the US Federal Reserve continue to cap EURUSD rebounds.
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**GBPUSD: Consolidation Above 1.2800 Faces Make-or-Break Test**
The British Pound posted a modest recovery after comments from the Bank of England cooled expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Still, GBPUSD remains caught in a pattern of lower highs, navigating technical headwinds at each bounce.
Read more on GBP/USD trading.