**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (27th July to 1st August 2025)**
*Author: Adam Lemon – Analysis adaptation and expansion*
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## Overview
The GBP/USD currency pair, commonly known as “cable,” has experienced notable turbulence as July draws to a close. Sterling’s path against the US dollar over the coming week hinges on a variety of technical and fundamental factors, as highlighted by Adam Lemon’s recent analysis for DailyForex.com. This extended forecast examines prevailing market sentiment, key support and resistance levels, potential catalysts from economic data, and trader positioning expectations. Readers will gain a comprehensive understanding of what could shape GBP/USD from July 27th to August 1st, 2025.
## Recap: Recent GBP/USD Performance
– The pair has shown mixed momentum during July, with underlying weakness prevailing after failing to break above major resistance zones.
– A strong US dollar, buoyed by persistent expectations of higher-for-longer Federal Reserve rates, has contrasted with the Bank of England’s more dovish tilt.
– GBP/USD remains sensitive to evolving risk sentiment, economic releases, and relative central bank policies.
## Technical Analysis
Charts and technical patterns indicate a consolidative environment, but risk of a further downward move persists if key supports break. Here’s a granular look at the technical outlook for the week ahead.
### Weekly Chart Structure
– **Major Support Levels:**
– 1.2550 – A near-term floor that has held recent declines, aligning with the late spring lows.
– 1.2400 – Deeper support that could be tested in case of a decisive breakdown below 1.2550.
– **Major Resistance Levels:**
– 1.2750 – A ceiling that has rejected multiple rally attempts over the past several months.
– 1.2850 – The bulls’ next target if the 1.2750 area is broken and consolidated above.
– **Candle Analysis:**
– Last week’s candle was bearish, underlining prevailing seller dominance and failure of the pound to sustain rallies.
– The 200-week moving average lies in the 1.2650 region, acting as a dynamic resistance point.
### Moving Averages and Trend Indicators
– **50-Week MA**: Sloping downward, indicating medium-term pressure for the pound.
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: Hovering near neutral territory, not yet oversold but with downside momentum building.
– **MACD**: Bearish crossover persists, highlighting risk of continued weakness unless buyers reclaim a foothold.
### Chart Patterns
– **Range Trading**: The pair has oscillated between approximately 1.2550 and 1.2750, a pattern likely to persist without a major external shock.
– **Descending Channel**: Shorter-term charts reveal a gentle downward channel, suggesting that rallies could be opportunities for sellers unless key resistance is cleared.
## Fundamental Factors
Beyond the charts, several top-tier economic and policy developments could dictate GBP/USD moves in the coming week.
### US Dollar Strength Remains a Headwind
– The dollar remains fundamentally supported by US economic resilience and persistent inflation, stunting hopes for early Fed rate cuts.
– Treasury yields are sitting high, which attracts global capital and increases demand for the greenback.
### Bank of England’s Policy Outlook
– The Bank of England is threading a cautious line, pivoting gently toward future rate cuts but holding off on immediate easing to avoid spurring inflation.
– UK CPI inflation, while easing, remains above target, limiting BOE dovish potential relative to some peers.
– Any surprises in BOE commentary or official communications could tip GBP/USD directionally.
### UK Economic Data: Key Releases This Week
The incoming UK data calendar could trigger volatility in cable. Watch for these primary events:
– **UK GDP Growth Rate (Preliminary estimates for Q2 2025):**
– Potential for surprises, with forecasts
Read more on GBP/USD trading.