Pairs in Focus: July 27 to August 1, 2025
(Rewritten and Expanded from DailyForex.com article by Robert Petrucci)
The upcoming trading week from July 27 to August 1, 2025, is poised to offer forex traders heightened volatility and compelling market opportunities across several key currency pairs. As recent economic releases and central bank statements continue to shape market sentiment, traders should prepare for dynamic shifts in trading ranges and potential breakouts. This analysis provides a comprehensive breakdown of expected trends for major Forex pairs, highlighting technical levels, fundamental drivers, and strategic outlooks.
Original content by Robert Petrucci from DailyForex.com
(https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/07/pairs-in-focus-27th-july-to-01th-august-2025/231752)
Market Overview Heading into the Week
The last week of July 2025 starts with lingering risk sentiment across global markets due to macroeconomic uncertainty. With central banks across the US, Eurozone, and UK guarding against inflation while trying to maintain economic stability, monetary policies remain a critical factor in driving FX valuations. Recent GDP releases have been mixed, with moderately strong performances in the US contrasting with stagnation in parts of Europe.
Important macroeconomic events affecting this week include:
– FOMC Meeting and Policy Decision (July 31)
– US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (August 2, will influence week ahead)
– Preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP Data
– Japanese CPI Numbers
– UK Housing Market Data
These will provide fodder for speculation on interest rate moves and monetary tightening/tapering from major central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Key Pairs to Watch This Week
EUR/USD Analysis
After testing resistance near the 1.1125 zone, EUR/USD ended the previous week near 1.1040. The pair has displayed considerable volatility as traders digest mixed signals from both the U.S. and Eurozone economies.
Key drivers:
– U.S. dollar remains firm as safe-haven demand persists amid equity market turbulence.
– ECB policymakers maintain a cautious stance; inflation still above-target in parts of the Eurozone.
– On July 30, Germany’s CPI may have a short-term impact on the euro.
Technical outlook:
– Resistance levels: 1.1125, 1.1160
– Support levels: 1.1015, 1.0980
– The broad consolidation range between 1.0980 and 1.1125 continues.
– Watch for a breakout above 1.1150 for momentum toward 1.1200.
Trading strategy:
– Neutral-to-bearish bias with tight stops near resistance.
– Potential long opportunities only above 1.1160 with confirmation of extended USD softness.
GBP/USD Analysis
Sterling bulls were stymied last week as the pair failed to breach the 1.3160 level, closing around 1.3085. The UK’s economic indicators have shown some resilience, especially in services, but inflationary risks and housing market softening weigh on sentiment.
Fundamental backdrop:
– Bank of England policymakers remain hawkish but cautious.
– UK CPI remains stubbornly high, but retail sales and GDP growth are erratic.
– Traders watching Construction PMI and Nationwide House Price Index this week.
Technical levels:
– Resistance: 1.3160, 1.3200
– Support: 1.3040, 1.2985
Potential scenarios:
– Holding above 1.3040 keeps the door open for an assault on 1.3160.
– A drop below 1.3000 could open the gates to 1.2900.
Trading approach:
– Range trading between 1.3000 to 1.3160 remains viable.
– Momentum trades favor upside if 1.3200 is
Read more on USD/CAD trading.