**AUD/USD Forex Analysis and Signal – July 29, 2025**
*(Inspired by the analysis of Adam Lemon on DailyForex.com, and expanded upon with additional insights from other reliable FX sources.)*
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### Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair continues to be a focal point for forex traders as global economic factors and monetary policy developments drive volatility. As of late July 2025, the pair is navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting risk sentiment, fluctuating commodity prices, and diverging central bank outlooks in Australia and the United States. This comprehensive analysis assesses the most recent technical picture, reviews important fundamentals, and provides actionable trading strategies for AUD/USD.
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### Current Market Context
– **Global Risk Appetite:** Fluctuations in market sentiment—especially regarding risk assets—continue to weigh heavily on the Australian dollar, a traditionally risk-sensitive currency.
– **Key Fundamental Drivers:**
– **Federal Reserve Outlook:** The US Federal Reserve remains firm on its higher-for-longer interest rate stance, supporting the US dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital flows.
– **Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy:** The RBA has maintained a relatively dovish tone compared to the Fed, although hints of future tightening create occasional spikes in AUD strength.
– **Commodity Prices:** As a major exporter of minerals and raw materials, Australia’s currency direction is strongly linked to global commodity price trends—especially iron ore and gold.
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### Technical Analysis
#### Chart Timeframe: H4 (Four-Hour)
– **Recent Price Action:** AUD/USD has demonstrated choppy behavior over the last several sessions, swinging between support near 0.6560 and resistance around 0.6700. Short-term movements have largely been dictated by news-driven volatility.
– **Key Levels:**
– **Resistance Zones:**
– 0.6700 to 0.6720: A notable multi-session high, repeatedly tested but not conclusively broken.
– 0.6745: A level where sellers became active earlier in the month.
– **Support Zones:**
– 0.6600: Psychological and technical support, frequently attracting buyers.
– 0.6560: The local low from prior weeks, seen as a key defensive area for bulls.
– **Intermediate Support/Resistance:** 0.6650 and 0.6680 serve as intraday pivots depending on directional momentum.
#### Moving Averages
– **50-period EMA:** The 50-EMA on the H4 timeframe has flattened, suggesting a rangebound environment in the near term.
– **200-period EMA:** The longer-term 200-EMA is trending slightly upward, hinting at potential bullish bias if the price closes above 0.6700 with conviction.
#### Momentum Indicators
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** RSI oscillates in the mid-50s, indicating a lack of clear direction and aligning
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