**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook and Analysis**
*Based on and expanded from an article by ActionForex.*
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## Introduction
The AUD/USD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, is a critical market barometer for gauging both risk sentiment and the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region. This pair is widely traded, influenced by the relative strength of the Australian and US economies, monetary policy, commodities, and risk-on/risk-off sentiment globally. This analysis presents a detailed weekly outlook for AUD/USD, building upon and expanding the technical review originally published by ActionForex. Additional sources help provide broader context and update the technical and fundamental backdrop.
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## Recent Performance Overview
AUD/USD began the previous week with a downward bias, facing pressure as mixed sentiment prevailed around risk-related currencies. Early losses saw the pair breaking beneath key technical levels before finding support. The US Dollar’s underlying strength, deriving from robust economic data and hawkish signals by Federal Reserve officials, has weighed on AUD, even as occasional rebounds have taken place.
**Key highlights of the week:**
– AUD/USD briefly dropped below 0.6550, approaching levels last seen in March 2024.
– The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near recent highs, reflecting broad-based Greenback demand.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) refrained from providing explicit forward guidance, keeping the Australian Dollar vulnerable to global developments.
– A minor rebound towards the end of the week saw the pair attempting to reclaim lost ground amid shifting risk appetite.
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## Technical Analysis
### Short-Term Trends and Chart Patterns
Examining daily and weekly charts gives context for recent price action and possible future scenarios.
**Weekly chart observations:**
– AUD/USD has been forming a persistent channel since late April, with failed attempts at decisively breaking higher above 0.6700.
– A series of lower highs and lower lows suggest a bearish undertone, especially after a break beneath 0.6580 support.
– The 200-week simple moving average continues to cap any significant rallies, reinforcing the ceiling for bullish moves.
**Key support and resistance levels:**
– Support: The immediate floor lies at 0.6500. Losing this handle could accelerate selling pressure toward 0.6450 and potentially 0.6385, where historical buying interest resurfaces.
– Resistance: Near-term resistance is sighted at 0.6620, and sustained movement beyond 0.6675 would be required to reassess the bearish stance.
**Technical indicators:**
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe points towards neutral territory, implying neither oversold nor overbought conditions.
– MACD histogram has turned downward, reinforcing momentum in favor of the US Dollar.
– Moving averages: The 20-week and 50-week moving averages are flat to slightly negative, reflecting indecision but with a bearish tilt.
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### Price Action Scenarios
– As long as
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