**AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast**
*Based on insights from ActionForex.com and supplementary industry data. Original analysis credited to ActionForex.com.*
## Introduction
The AUD/USD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, is one of the world’s most closely watched forex pairs. It serves as a barometer for both global risk sentiment and the relative economic performance between Australia and the United States. The weekly performance of AUD/USD is especially significant for traders, investors, and policy-makers given the ongoing interplay between monetary policy, commodity prices, global risk appetite, and macroeconomic data releases. This article delivers an in-depth analysis of the recent performance, technical outlook, and potential scenarios for AUD/USD in the near term, incorporating insights from *ActionForex.com* and additional market perspectives.
## Recent Price Action Overview
– Over the past week, the Australian Dollar has faced considerable pressure against the US Dollar, reflecting a broader trend of USD strength across the foreign exchange markets.
– The pair experienced a renewed bout of selling, particularly after failing to sustain momentum above pivotal resistance zones.
– Market sentiment swung toward caution due to a combination of global macroeconomic factors, including shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy and weak Chinese economic data, which traditionally weighs on the AUD.
– The commodity-sensitive Australian Dollar is further impacted by fluctuations in iron ore and other export commodity prices, as well as risk aversion amid global uncertainties.
## Weekly Recap: Technical Performance
– The currency pair initiated the week with a modest attempt to recover toward short-term resistance before sellers dominated, driving the pair lower.
– A key development was the failure to hold above immediate resistance levels near 0.6650, which resulted in renewed downside pressure.
– The pair ended the week in negative territory, closing near local support around 0.6570, a level previously recognized as a medium-term pivot.
### Key Technical Observations
– Downward momentum remains persistent in the short-term and mid-term charts.
– AUD/USD remains below its 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish stance.
– The pair’s inability to reclaim higher support-turned-resistance levels suggests further downside risks may be in play.
## Fundamental Drivers
### 1. Divergence in Monetary Policy
– The US Federal Reserve continues to signal patience regarding interest rate adjustments, prioritizing evidence of sustained inflation moderation before considering cuts.
– Recent economic indicators out of the US, including labor market data and inflation reports, have bolstered confidence in the Greenback.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), while maintaining a relatively restrictive stance due to domestic inflation, has paused its tightening, citing increased global uncertainties and fragile consumer demand.
– The resultant yield differential supports USD strength and curbs Australian Dollar appreciation.
### 2. Commodity Market Fluctuations
– Australia’s terms of trade are heavily influenced by world commodity prices, especially iron ore and coal.
– Recent dips in iron
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