Evening Update for EUR/USD – August 1, 2025
Adapted and expanded from original analysis by Economies.com
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement during Friday’s trading session, reflecting ongoing bearish pressures in the Forex market. This latest price action confirms the strength of the negative trend that has been in motion, particularly after a series of reversals and failed attempts to break resistance levels in previous sessions. The consistent decline points to weak bullish momentum, with bears taking advantage of technical setups and macroeconomic signals.
This expanded analysis provides an in-depth review of current price action, technical patterns, support and resistance zones, and potential trading scenarios for the days ahead. The overview also includes elements of risk management and key indicators to watch that may influence the trajectory of the EUR/USD currency pair. The original report by Economies.com serves as the foundation for this discussion, while additional details have been added for enhanced clarity and strategy formulation.
Current Market Overview
– The EUR/USD pair closed Friday on a weaker note, trading below significant short-term and medium-term support levels.
– Trading activity remained subdued after a modest attempt earlier in the session to reclaim higher ground was met with selling pressure.
– The price is currently consolidating below the critical resistance of 1.0900, which acted as a psychological barrier throughout the week.
– A clear bearish bias remains in place as evidenced by continued traction below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
– The latest downtrend aligns with broader US dollar strength, predominantly driven by tightening fiscal outlooks and improved labor market data in the US.
Technical Indicators & Patterns
Moving Averages
– The 50-day EMA is sloping downward, currently positioned near 1.0925, reflecting the prevailing downside trend.
– The 100-day EMA has also turned south, reinforcing the path of least resistance toward the downside.
– With price action located beneath both moving averages, a firm resistance band is established between 1.0890 and 1.0930.
– Price staying under these EMAs indicates limited bullish momentum and further downside risks.
Support & Resistance Levels
Key support levels:
– 1.0800: A psychological and technical support zone. A break below this level could trigger further selling.
– 1.0755: Represents the bottom of a recent consolidation range and may serve as an important test level in the near term.
– 1.0700: A round-number level that may offer minor support in case of accelerated downside moves.
Key resistance levels:
– 1.0880: Near-term resistance formed by intraday price rejections.
– 1.0940: A swing high from the previous week, rejected multiple times by sellers.
– 1.1000: The major resistance level that has yet to be challenged since last week’s failed breakout attempt.
Trend Patterns
– The pair is forming descending highs and lower lows on the H4 (four-hour) and daily charts.
– Price action shows a clear bearish flag pattern that suggests the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently trading below 50, indicating downside momentum is still in effect. RSI has not entered oversold territory, leaving room for further downside.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in the negative territory, with its histogram printing lower lows. The MACD signal line is below the zero level, continuing to support the bearish scenario.
– Volume has slightly increased during downward moves, reinforcing the bearish breakout narrative.
Fundamental Drivers
Several fundamental factors have weighed heavily on the EUR/USD movement during the recent session, helping drive the bearish bias:
U.S. Economic Data:
– Positive labor market reports, including stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, reduced investors’ appetite for EUR and strengthened the USD.
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