**AUD/USD Price Forecast: Uptrend Holds as Pair Remains Above 200-Day SMA**
*Original analysis credited to Christian Borjon Valencia at FXStreet. Additional insights incorporated from recent market commentary and macroeconomic developments.*
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The Aussie dollar (AUD) is currently experiencing a period of consolidation against the US dollar (USD), with the AUD/USD currency pair holding firmly above the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This technical indicator has served as both a psychological and trend-defining level for market participants over the past several weeks. The resilience of this pair, despite global market uncertainties and shifting expectations surrounding monetary policy in both Australia and the United States, suggests that optimism remains among Aussie dollar bulls.
This article takes an in-depth look at the recent price action, key technical levels, macroeconomic influences, and potential scenarios that may play out in the coming sessions. By combining analysis from Christian Borjon Valencia’s FXStreet article and drawing upon additional market data, traders and investors can gain a comprehensive understanding of what to watch for in the AUD/USD pair.
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## Technical Overview: AUD/USD Holds Above Major Support
One of the primary features supporting the Aussie dollar is its successful maintenance above the 200-day SMA. This moving average is widely followed by longer-term traders as a gauge of the overall trend; as long as the pair trades above it, an uptrend bias is considered intact.
**Recent Technical Developments:**
– The AUD/USD pair recently rebounded after testing the 200-day SMA, which currently hovers near 0.6620-0.6630.
– Price action over the past several trading sessions has created a higher-low formation on the daily chart, suggesting that buyers are stepping in at sequentially higher levels.
– Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe are holding above the 50 midline, reinforcing bullish momentum.
– The pair is also trading above its 50-day SMA, which has now turned upward and is positioned well above the 100-day SMA, another sign of a strengthening short-to-medium term trend.
## Key Support and Resistance Levels
Traders should monitor the following technical levels for signs of continuation or potential reversal:
**Major Support:**
– 200-day SMA: 0.6620-0.6630 (Strongest near-term support)
– Swing low near 0.6600 (Next support if the 200-day SMA fails)
– Psychological mark: 0.6550
**Major Resistance:**
– Immediate resistance at 0.6735-0.6750 (Recent swing highs)
– Further resistance at 0.6800, coinciding with multi-month highs
– 0.6850 is a longer-term resistance level, not tested since the first quarter of 2024
If AUD/USD remains above the 200-day SMA and successfully breaks above short-term resistance at 0.6750, there is scope for a move towards the
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