**AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Aims for Year-To-Date Highs**
*Adapted and expanded from Sergio Zamora’s FXStreet analysis. Additional insights incorporated from recent Reuters and Investing.com commentaries.*
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The Australian dollar (AUD) has notably strengthened against the US dollar (USD) in recent sessions, continuing its upward trajectory and fueling speculation about retesting, and potentially surpassing, the year-to-date (YTD) peaks. This article delves into the current state of the AUD/USD currency pair, discusses the underlying factors driving the move, evaluates technical and fundamental indicators, and outlines possible scenarios for traders and investors.
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## **Market Background**
The AUD/USD pair frequently serves as a barometer for risk sentiment and global economic trends, given Australia’s sensitivity to global commodity demand and exposure to the Chinese economy. Recent shifts in US monetary policy expectations and evolving risk appetite have revitalized bullish prospects for AUD/USD, generating strong momentum.
### **Recent Price Action**
– **AUD/USD began the latest week near the 0.6650 level,** displaying resilience after a series of consolidations last month.
– A sequence of higher lows since early June suggests increasing buying interest.
– The pair reclaimed significant short-term moving averages, particularly the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on the daily chart, reinforcing the constructive tone.
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## **Technical Analysis**
Technical factors have played a central role in the latest uptrend, with several bullish signals reinforcing traders’ appetite for further gains.
### **Short-Term Indicators**
– **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** RSI on the daily time frame has climbed above the midline, currently hovering near 62, indicating rising momentum yet not overbought conditions.
– **Moving Averages:**
– The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is providing dynamic support near 0.6680.
– The 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages are situated below current price action, strengthening the near-term bullish structure.
– **MACD Oscillator:** The MACD histogram remains positive and continues to expand, with the signal line crossover further supporting upward momentum.
### **Chart Patterns and Levels**
– **Ascending Channel:** The pair maintains its path within a well-defined ascending channel since the start of June, suggesting sustained control by buyers.
– **Key Resistance Levels:**
– 0.6750: Recent swing high and a psychological threshold for further advances.
– 0.6800: The round number and critical barrier coinciding with previous yearly highs.
– 0.6870: Multi-month resistance and the highest mark since early January.
– **Support Levels:**
– 0.6680: Previous resistance, now acting as immediate support.
– 0.6640: The base of the recent breakout, critical for sustaining the bullish outlook.
– 0.6590: The June lows, serving as the primary floor for any
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