**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Market Outlook**
*Based on analysis from ActionForex & additional reputable Forex sources. Credit to ActionForex for the original analysis.*
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### Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair experienced notable volatility over the past week, driven by a mix of global risk sentiment shifts and key macroeconomic developments from both the United States and Australia. As we examine the technical and fundamental landscape, several trends and data points offer clarity on both immediate and longer-term prospects for the Australian dollar against its US counterpart.
This comprehensive analysis will cover:
– Recent price action recap
– Key technical levels and chart patterns
– Fundamental drivers underpinning recent moves
– Macro-economic factors to observe for future trends
– Sentiment in broader FX markets
– Projections for upcoming trading sessions and possible scenarios
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### Recent Price Action Recap
– The AUD/USD dipped sharply early in the week before stabilizing and rebounding modestly.
– Last week saw heightened movements primarily due to the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decisions and subsequent US data, which affected the US dollar’s strength globally.
– The Australian dollar, sensitive to global risk appetite and Chinese economic updates, reflected weakness before paring some of its declines.
– By week’s end, AUD/USD attempted to consolidate, closing with marginal losses relative to the previous Friday’s levels.
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### Key Technical Levels and Chart Patterns
#### Support and Resistance
– **Immediate Resistance:**
– The area around 0.6680–0.6700 proved a persistent ceiling as AUD/USD struggled to break above it on multiple occasions.
– **Primary Support:**
– The 0.6570–0.6580 zone emerged as a strong floor, with price bouncing several times in this range during the week.
#### Moving Averages
– The pair maintained price action just above the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for most of the previous week, which continues to act as dynamic support.
– The 200-day EMA, located near the 0.6560–0.6570 region, further strengthens the confluence of support.
#### Trend Analysis
– The medium-term trend has shifted from bearish to neutral-bullish as AUD/USD broke out of a persistent downtrend channel earlier in the quarter.
– The inability to move beyond resistance near 0.6700 raises questions about the sustainability of the upside momentum.
#### Chart Patterns
– Recent sessions formed a mild series of higher lows, hinting at underlying buying interest.
– However, lower highs formed on the daily chart introduce caution as bullish momentum wanes.
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### Fundamental Drivers
#### US Dollar Movements
– The primary driver for AUD/USD has been the market’s evolving expectation regarding US monetary policy:
– The Federal Reserve, in its recent statement, adopted a slightly more dovish tilt, indicating patience regarding further rate hikes.
– US CPI data has been mixed, introducing some doubt about the future pace of rate cuts, which
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