Weekly Forex Forecast: August 10–15, 2025
By: DailyForex.com Analyst Team
Original article link: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/08/weekly-forex-forecast-10th-to-15-august-2025/232437
The upcoming week in the forex market, spanning August 10 through August 15, 2025, presents several critical developments and price setups across major currency pairs. Global economic sentiment remains affected by geopolitical tensions, central bank posturing, and persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in the United States, Eurozone, and Japan. This forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of key forex pairs, highlighting vital technical levels, observed trends, and likely market behavior driven by both domestic and international influences.
Key Themes for the Week:
– Shifts in monetary policy expectations driven by economic data from the US, including inflation and employment metrics
– Ongoing weakness in the Japanese Yen, potentially driven by Bank of Japan’s dovish posture
– EUR/USD remaining at the center of attention amid uncertain Eurozone growth
– Speculative interest in commodity-linked currencies amid China-driven demand sentiment
– Risk sentiment fluctuations driven by equity market volatility and bond yields
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Rebound at Key Resistance
The EUR/USD pair has been confined in a relatively narrow trading range over the past few sessions. However, the overall tendency remains bearish despite last week’s mild retracement toward resistance territory.
Key Observations:
– The euro is trading just below the 1.1000 psychological threshold, unable to sustain upward traction.
– Strong resistance lies in the 1.1050 zone, which acted as a pivot in late July and early August.
– Momentum indicators show waning bullish energy as RSI hovers near 50, indicating consolidation pressure.
– On the downside, key support is situated at 1.0880 and further at 1.0800, where buyers historically emerged in late June.
Outlook:
– Short-term sentiment leans negative unless the pair breaks confidently above 1.1050 with volume support.
– Upcoming Eurozone GDP and industrial production figures could add downward pressure if the data miss expectations.
– The Federal Reserve’s stance also needs monitoring as any hawkish rhetoric may further strengthen the dollar.
GBP/USD Analysis: Stalling Near Multi-Month Highs
The British pound remains relatively strong against the US dollar, bolstered by robust UK labor market data and hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of England in prior meetings. However, technical exhaustion is evident near the 1.2950–1.3000 zone.
Key Observations:
– The pair is trading within reach of the psychologically significant 1.3000 level.
– There is established resistance at 1.2980 where bullish attempts have failed in previous attempts.
– The rising channel on the daily chart continues to hold, favoring bulls but with signs of topping structure near current levels.
– RSI shows bearish divergence from price, signaling a drop in relative momentum.
– 50-day moving average supports the uptrend at around the 1.2720 level.
Outlook:
– Short-term correction is likely if sellers exploit the divergence and breach the support zone near 1.2850.
– Bulls require fundamentals to improve, with a weekly close above 1.3000 needed to trigger further upward movement.
– Traders should watch for UK GDP reports later in the week to cement direction.
USD/JPY Forecast: Persistent Bullish Trend Continues
The USD/JPY pair continues to reflect the stark divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The dollar has been gaining against the yen, pushing the pair to new highs for the year.
Key Observations:
– Strong bullish price action after clearing the 145.00 resistance level early last week.
– The pair now targets 147.50, approaching long-term channel upper boundaries.
– Momentum indicators are firmly in bullish
Read more on EUR/USD trading.