EUR/USD Holds Tight as Market Awaits Fed and Eurozone Data: Key Levels and Consolidation Signals on August 11, 2025

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – August 11, 2025
Original analysis by: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair has seen increased volatility, characterized by fluctuating market sentiment and intermittent demand for the US dollar. The pair has maintained a tight trading range, responding to divergent economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States.

Market Summary on EUR/USD

As of August 11, 2025, the EUR/USD has been trading in a relatively constrained channel, with heights capped by resistance and temporary support forming a floor for price action. Market participants are evaluating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, upcoming economic indicators, and the performance of the Eurozone’s economy, while the US dollar receives mixed signals from domestic data releases.

Key Technical Observations:

– Price Range Behavior: The currency pair is operating within a clearly defined short-term range with resistance around 1.0985 and support at 1.0920.
– Market Consolidation: Traders have neither committed to a bullish breakout nor a full-scale bearish reversal.
– Key Resistance Levels:
– 1.1000: Critical psychological level and technical resistance.
– 1.1050: A pivot range that has historically served as a resistance zone.
– Key Support Levels:
– 1.0920: Intraday support and potential bounce area.
– 1.0880: Secondary support—should this level fail, the pair could decline further.
– Moving Averages:
– Short-term moving averages suggest ranging behavior, with the 20-period EMA flattening.
– The 50-period SMA has shown slight upward bias, reflecting residual bullish sentiment.

Recent Economic Data and Impact

Economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States have contributed to the recent sideways trend:

Eurozone Indicators:

– German Industrial Production:
– Contracted more than expected in July, raising concerns about stagnation across Europe’s largest economy.
– Lower manufacturing output put downward pressure on the euro.

– Eurozone Retail Sales:
– Reported below consensus expectations, signaling weakening consumer demand.

– Inflation Trends:
– The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures suggest moderate inflation, reducing the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB).

United States Indicators:

– Non-Farm Payrolls:
– U.S. job data showed continued expansion despite forecasts showing moderation.
– Markets interpreted the results as reducing the likelihood of an imminent rate cut, favoring the dollar.

– Consumer Confidence:
– Strong consumer spending and improved household sentiment suggest underlying strength in the U.S. economy.

– Federal Reserve Outlook:
– Recent comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicate a data-dependent approach.
– Markets are split on whether another interest rate hike will occur before year-end.

Market Sentiment and Trader Positioning

The current sentiment among traders shows indecision as the market awaits more directional cues. The lack of strong follow-through following recent economic releases further emphasizes the wait-and-see attitude.

– CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
– Shows a reduction in net long positions on the euro.
– Traders are hesitant to bet aggressively in either direction given current uncertainty.

– Risk Appetite:
– Fragile global risk sentiment limits large capital flow movements.
– The Ukraine conflict and weak Chinese industrial data add a layer of geopolitical and economic risk.

Technical Chart Patterns

The EUR/USD hourly and daily charts display signs of consolidation, with potential setups forming that could generate breakout or breakdown signals.

– Hourly Chart:
– Horizontal channel evident between 1.0920 support and 1.0985 resistance.
– Lack of momentum above or below this channel implies range-bound trading strategy opportunities.

– Daily Chart:
– The pair trades above the 100-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average.
– The RSI (Relative Strength Index) hovers near 50, reflecting neutral momentum.
– Potential bullish breakout if

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