Title: USD/JPY Exhausts Positive Momentum: Deep Dive into Technical and Forecast Analysis
Original Source: Economies.com (Article by Economies.com Analyst, published August 13, 2025)
The USD/JPY currency pair has recently signaled a potential shift in its short-term momentum following a period of bullish advancement. As per the latest analysis published on Economies.com, the pair has encountered significant resistance, suggesting that its recent upward price movement may have reached a saturation point. This detailed review will decode the pair’s current technical status, future expectations, and possible trading strategies for the coming sessions.
Overview:
The USD/JPY pair exhibited positive traction in previous sessions, bolstered primarily by strong U.S. dollar fundamentals and favorable technical trends. However, recent market behavior hints at a pause—or even a reversal—in buying pressure, leading analysts to predict a return to the bearish correction path unless new catalysts emerge to reignite bullish sentiment.
Key Technical Insights:
– The pair touched the 145.90 resistance level recently, a price zone that has previously acted as a ceiling for bullish advances over the past few months.
– Price action shows a retreat from this resistance, forming candlestick reversal patterns that further confirm waning bullish momentum.
– The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has flattened, signaling market indecision and a slowdown in the upward march.
– Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing bearish divergence—an early indicator that the upward trend may be losing steam.
Price Action Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair’s recent climb was largely driven by:
– Necessity within global markets for USD holdings amid tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
– Interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan, leading to sustained demand for the U.S. dollar.
– An uptrend structure characterized by higher highs and higher lows over previous weeks.
Despite these supportive factors, the prevailing technical setup now presents several cautionary signals:
– The pair is trading in proximity to a multi-month resistance region where past rallies concluded.
– Recent candlestick formations near resistance, such as shooting stars and long upper wicks, reflect selling pressure from bulls unable to sustain gains.
– The RSI failed to achieve new highs concurrent with price—an important divergence known to precede reversals.
Short-Term Forecast:
If the pair maintains trading below the 145.90 resistance level, selling interest could gain strength across the upcoming sessions. According to Economies.com, a sustained move below the 144.50 support zone would open the door for a deeper retracement.
Bearish Scenario Expectations:
If bearish pressure escalates, the following levels could serve as downside targets:
– First Support: 144.50
– Second Support: 143.20 (Major Pivot Zone)
– Critical Support: 141.80, the previous significant low and a vital floor for medium-term trend maintenance
In addition, a break below the 143.20 mark could shift the medium-term outlook from neutral/bullish to decisively bearish.
Technical Indicators Review:
Economies.com’s original analysis emphasizes a close watch on leading indicators that gauge market momentum and trend strength:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
– Currently hovering below 60
– Bearish divergence observed
– Likely to drop below neutral 50 line if downward momentum continues
MACD:
– Shows narrowing histogram bars
– Approaching a bearish crossover
– Potential trigger for a sell decision if crossover completes with price confirmation
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
– 50-day EMA is acting as near-term support but lacks upward slope
– 100-day EMA could provide stronger support near the 143.20 area
– EMA positioning could determine future trend bias depending on price action around them
Fibonacci Retracement:
– The pair has recently failed to break above the 61.8% retracement of the last major downtrend.
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Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.