Originally published by Economies.com
Title: Comprehensive Forecast Update for EUR/USD – August 13, 2025
By Economies.com Analyst Team
The EUR/USD pair has continued to demonstrate a relatively volatile pattern, with price action hovering near critical technical levels as of August 13, 2025. The forex market’s focus remains on inflation data, monetary policy trajectories for both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), and global economic sentiment. This updated analysis offers a detailed forecast for EUR/USD price movements, supported by technical indicators, fundamental drivers, and market sentiment analysis.
Technical Overview and Price Movement
The EUR/USD currency pair is showing signs of consolidation just below the resistance level around 1.0980. Price action in recent sessions has demonstrated a modest incline, but momentum appears weak, and traders remain cautious approaching key economic data later in the week.
Key Technical Indicators
– 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Positioned near 1.0935, acting as interim support.
– 100-day EMA: Near 1.0990, bordering key short-term resistance.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 55, indicating mild bullish momentum, but falling shy of overbought territory.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Slightly positive histogram, reflecting early signs of bullish interest.
– Support levels: 1.0920, 1.0880, and 1.0835.
– Resistance levels: 1.0980, 1.1030, and 1.1080.
The current price is forming a transitory uptrend on shorter timeframes, typically 4-hour charts. However, the daily chart reveals the pair remains stuck within a broader sideways range, which has persisted for much of Q3 2025.
Price Prediction and Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
If buyers succeed in breaching the 1.0980 resistance level decisively, the pair may gain further ground, potentially targeting subsequent resistances near 1.1030 and 1.1080. This bullish scenario requires:
– A strong daily close above 1.0980.
– Continued resilience at the 50-day EMA level.
– Favorable economic data from the eurozone supporting the euro.
Scenario 2: Bearish Retraction
On the downside, failure to hold above interim support at 1.0920 could initiate a deeper correction, likely dragging the pair toward 1.0880 and 1.0835. This outcome is more probable if the dollar gains renewed strength amid Fed hawkish signals or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports.
MACD and RSI divergence on lower timeframes may also serve as early warnings of such a deviation from the current pattern.
Fundamental Drivers Influencing EUR/USD
The short-term and medium-term outlook for EUR/USD will heavily depend on monetary policy expectations, inflation trends in both economies, and geopolitical events. August releases from both the United States and the eurozone are expected to play a significant role.
European Central Bank Policy Developments
The European Central Bank continues to signal a cautious policy tightening mode, with ongoing commitments to monitor inflation closely. The current deposit rate remains at 4.25 percent, but several voting members within the ECB’s Governing Council hint at maintaining elevated rates well into 2026.
Recent Eurozone macroeconomic indicators:
– July Consumer Price Index (CPI) 12-month inflation held at 3.9 percent, above ECB’s 2 percent target.
– Q2 GDP growth moderated to 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter across the Euro Area.
– German industrial production recorded a 1.4 percent decline in June, raising concerns over economic stagnation.
These figures moderate bullish expectations for the euro. If upcoming eurozone inflation data shows moderation, the ECB may soften its policy stance, potentially weakening the euro against the dollar.
Federal Reserve Policy
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